Add in shifting geopolitics, rising demand from emerging markets, and the need for stronger, more secure supply chains, and it’s clear that agility and foresight are more important than ever.

In our annual look ahead, we break down the top 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching, reacting to, and writing about in 2026.

Read on for our 10 2026 trends.

Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2025 had in store.

1. Global trade hits record high in 2025 but faces slower growth in 2026

Global trade reached a record US$35 trillion in 2025, demonstrating strong resilience despite rising geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and increasing trade barriers. According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), trade expanded by about 7% year over year, driven by higher volumes in both goods and services, with particularly strong contributions from East Asia, Africa, and South–South trade.

However, UNCTAD warns that momentum is slowing and expects weaker trade growth in 2026 as economic uncertainty, higher trade costs, and fragmentation weigh on global flows.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) echoes this outlook. Global merchandise trade grew faster than expected in early 2025 as firms front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and demand for AI-related products surged, especially in Asia and North America.

As a result, the WTO revised its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast upward to 2.4%, while sharply lowering its 2026 forecast to just 0.5%, reflecting a cooling global economy and the full-year impact of higher tariffs.

Trade in commercial services remains more resilient but is also slowing. The WTO expects services export growth to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and 4.4% in 2026, as weaker goods trade and slower output growth spill over into services.

Together, the UNCTAD and WTO assessments point to a global trade environment that is structurally strong but increasingly constrained, supported in the short term by technology investment and resilient demand, yet facing slower growth ahead as protectionism, economic cooling, and fragmentation reshape global trade dynamics.

2. Sustainable & carbon-sensitive trade

Sustainable policies (Electricity Demand & AI)

As electrification and digitalization accelerate, trade policies are increasingly aligning with climate and energy goals to support clean energy infrastructure and carbon-sensitive trade.

Global power demand is surging—driven in part by data centers and AI workloads—forcing energy systems to evolve and integrate more renewables.

Policies are beginning to incentivize renewable electricity generation, grid modernization, and clean technology exports to manage this growth sustainably while maintaining climate objectives.

Trade in renewable energy technologies (e.g., solar, wind, electrolyzers) is expanding rapidly, reshaping energy markets from fossil-fuel dominance toward clean trade flows that include grid equipment and storage systems. Export of these technologies supports carbon-sensitive value chains and opens new trading corridors as countries compete to lead in clean tech deployment. News Release Archive

At the policy level, many countries are implementing clean electricity investment tax credits, carbon pricing, and regulatory frameworks to encourage grid upgrades and clean power trade. For example, Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Strategy aims to boost clean energy and critical mineral supply chains globally, enhancing trade competitiveness while cutting emissions. Canada

Sustainable supply chain management

In 2026, sustainable supply chain management is becoming central to reducing climate impacts across international trade. Trade agreements and sustainability initiatives are increasingly tying environmental performance to supply chain practices, encouraging cleaner logistics, emissions tracking, and resilient value chains.

A recent OECD working paper emphasizes that trade policy can foster environmentally sustainable supply chains by integrating sustainability standards and climate objectives into trade agreements and corporate practices.

AI and advanced analytics are playing a transformative role by enabling companies to monitor emissions, optimize logistics for lower carbon output, and enhance transparency across multi-tier networks, helping firms make data-driven decisions that reduce carbon footprints while improving efficiency.

These developments reflect a shift from cost-only supply chain metrics toward carbon and environmental risk evaluation, with sustainability strategies embedded into procurement, production, and logistics planning.

Stronger collaboration among trading partners on carbon disclosure and low-emission practices would build resilience while aligning commercial incentives with net-zero goals.

3. Rise of emerging market demand

Emerging markets, particularly those in Southeast Asia and Africa, are becoming increasingly important demand centers in global trade. Countries in the ASEAN region, including Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand, are expanding their imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery, driven by robust industrial expansion and stronger trade partnerships.

Africa’s major economies like Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Tanzania, South Africa, and Ghana are also growing their imports of food products, engineering goods, consumer goods, and medicines as rising populations and urbanization boost domestic consumption.

This shift is widening export opportunities for suppliers outside traditional Western markets and encouraging exporters to diversify into high‑growth developing regions where demand is rising faster than in advanced economies.

4. Competition & customer service shortening delivery times

In 2026, last‑mile delivery remains one of the most complex and important parts of the supply chain, shaped by evolving consumer expectations and ongoing market challenges. Logistics providers will need to address three key areas to stay competitive:

Big and bulky items: Demand for doorstep delivery of oversized goods like furniture and appliances is growing, but many carriers avoid these due to complexity. Specialized networks can turn this into a strategic advantage.

Reliability over speed: A shift in customer priorities shows that most shoppers (about 90%) prefer reliable delivery within 2–3 days rather than ultra‑fast service, highlighting the importance of consistent performance.

Transparent options: Providing clear estimated delivery dates at checkout and flexible delivery choices reduces cart abandonment and improves customer satisfaction.

Overall, successful last‑mile strategies in 2026 will combine specialized services, reliable performance, and delivery transparency to meet shifting consumer needs.

5. Scenario planning a strategic necessity for international businesses

In 2026, international businesses face geopolitical fragmentation, rapid technological change (especially AI), economic volatility, and rising sustainability and regulatory demands.

Scenario planning moves beyond traditional forecasting by exploring multiple plausible futures, helping companies build resilience and agility in global operations.

It uses “digital twins” to simulate different outcomes. Such a tool becomes critical in an unpredictable market. Any situation, even truly disastrous, can be simulated, tested, and solved virtually. So, the company gets a clear action plan before issues happen.

Key drivers include shifting trade alliances and tariffs, accelerating AI and automation with new cybersecurity and workforce implications, fluctuating interest and exchange rates, and increasingly complex ESG and data regulations. Supply chains remain vulnerable to natural disasters, conflicts, and strikes, highlighting the need for diversification and visibility.

Common scenarios that are run through scenario planning technology: Multipolar Patchwork (fragmented global blocs), Global Managed Trade (negotiated flows with policy shifts), and Localization/Self-Sufficiency (nearshoring to reduce geopolitical risk).

6. Shortening supply chains & localized manufacturing

Many companies are working to shorten cross-border supply chains and bring manufacturing closer to end consumers, whether on a national level or within regional trade blocks. For instance, many energy companies are acquiring manufacturing assets in, or shifting production to the Middle East to service regional customers, regardless of where the business is headquartered.

Additionally, there is a desire among multinational companies to develop close relationships and bring local partners into overseas markets where they might historically have sought to grow organically.

That is in part a recognition of a broader desire among customers to work with local counterparts and it often results in joint venture transactions that can bring local operational knowledge.

7. Services trade outpacing merchandise

The World Trade Organization (WTO) and other forecasting bodies indicate a steady, albeit slightly decelerated, growth for services trade in 2026. This contrasts with a significant slowdown projected for merchandise (goods) trade due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased tariffs.

Key global trends and factors include:

• Steady Growth: Services are expected to continue outpacing goods trade growth in 2026.
• Service exports a large proportion of Canadian trade growth: Between 2014 and 2024, Canadian service exports more than doubled to $232 B, now representing 23% of total exports and over 7% of GDP, accounting for 62% of the country’s real export growth while goods exports remain largely flat.
• Key Drivers: Growth is particularly strong in digital and business services. The demand for AI-related goods and services is also a significant driver.
• Headwinds: The overall global economic environment remains challenging, with trade disputes, high operating costs, and rising business insolvencies creating uncertainty.

8. Digital currencies transforming cross-border payments

Digital currencies issued or regulated by governments—such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins—are becoming a faster, cheaper way to move money across borders.

Today’s global trade payments still rely on slow, complex banking networks that add delays and fees.

CBDCs and regulated stablecoins offer a modern alternative, allowing funds to move almost instantly between trading partners while maintaining the stability of traditional currencies.

Unlike cryptocurrencies that fluctuate in value, stablecoins are backed 1:1 by real-world currencies, making them suitable for everyday trade, treasury, and settlement payments. Their digital design also enables automated payments tied to delivery or contract milestones.

For businesses, the benefits include quicker settlement, lower costs, and greater transparency. Studies show many companies are already achieving double-digit cost savings, and financial institutions expect digital currencies to handle a meaningful share of global payments by 2030.

As regulators in major economies advance real-world adoption, the biggest opportunities will be for platforms that support digital-currency payments seamlessly across international trade.

9. AI becomes the defining competitive advantage for manufacturing in 2026

Deloitte’s 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook highlights that artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key driver of competitiveness as manufacturers respond to lingering challenges from 2025—including rising costs, trade policy uncertainty, and slower growth.

According to the report, many manufacturers plan to increase investment in smart manufacturing technologies such as automation, advanced analytics, cloud platforms, and agentic AI, which can independently make decisions to improve productivity, quality, and capacity.

AI’s role is expanding beyond traditional automation to include functions like identifying alternative suppliers during disruptions, capturing retiring workers’ expertise, and improving customer service processes.

Advanced physical AI, such as autonomous robots and robotic systems, is also set to grow, with adoption expected to more than double within two years.

Manufacturers are increasingly using AI to strengthen supply chain resilience, employing AI-driven analytics to monitor risk, forecast disruptions, and rebalance networks in real time. The technology also supports a shift from reactive to predictive services, boosting equipment uptime and customer satisfaction.

Despite talent shortages, AI itself can help capture workforce knowledge and accelerate training. Deloitte concludes that companies that invest strategically in AI and smart manufacturing will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and widen their competitive advantage in 2026.

10. Growing focus on cybersecurity in supply chains

Heading into 2026, cybersecurity is rising as a core priority in international trade supply chain management, driven by the increasing digitalization of global logistics, manufacturing, and trading systems.

As cross-border commerce relies on interconnected IT systems, cloud platforms, AI-driven operations, and third-party partners, vulnerabilities are expanding, making cybersecurity essential not only for IT teams but for strategic supply chain and trade risk management.

Key aspects shaping this trend:

• Expanded attack surface: Complex global supply chains now include multiple vendors, logistics systems, and digital interfaces. Cyber threats exploit weak links in this ecosystem, with third-party and multi-tier vendor vulnerabilities increasingly leveraged by attackers.
• Regulatory drivers: Standards and regulations like the EU’s NIS2 and broader risk disclosure requirements are pushing businesses involved in international trade to embed cybersecurity compliance and governance into their supply chain protocols.
• Operational risk and resilience: High-impact cyber incidents—such as ransomware attacks disrupting freight operations—underscore the operational risks to global trade flows and reinforce the need for robust cybersecurity measures across partners and transport networks.
• Integrated visibility and trust: In 2026, firms are moving toward end-to-end security visibility, continuous monitoring, and zero-trust frameworks that secure data and operations from origin to delivery across international borders.

In 2026 cybersecurity will no longer be a niche technical concern but a strategic imperative for global trade supply chains. Protecting digital infrastructure and partner networks is critical to ensuring uninterrupted trade operations, regulatory compliance, and confidence among trading partners.

The post Top 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2026 appeared first on Trade Ready.

From an early age, Audrey Marie-Nely had a deep curiosity about different cultures, languages, and global markets. Born and raised in France, her academic and professional journey took her across continents—from Europe to Canada and South America—where she explored the complexities of international trade and innovation.

Today, as a Certified International Trade Professional (CITP) and a graduate of the FITTskills program, she leverages her expertise to help businesses navigate the global marketplace.

Building her career foundation with education

Audrey began her academic journey by working towards a Diploma in Business Management, which provided a solid foundation in key business principles. Her growing fascination with international trade led her to pursue a Bachelor’s degree in International Business. “I’ve always had a strong interest in the world, its languages, and its cultures,” she shares.

“During my studies, the concept of ‘glocalization’—how companies adapt global strategies to fit local markets—really resonated with me. I wanted to be part of helping businesses thrive internationally.”

Recognizing the increasing role of technology in global commerce, she took her education a step further with a Master’s degree in Innovation and Entrepreneurship.

“Technology is revolutionizing trade, from digital marketplaces to blockchain for supply chain transparency. I knew that to stay ahead, I had to understand how innovation intersects with international trade.”

Doing meaningful work supporting small businesses and entrepreneurs

Audrey’s professional journey has been just as global as her education. After completing her studies in France, she moved to Canada, eager to experience a new business environment. There, she immersed herself in the world of entrepreneurship and small business support. “I had the privilege of working with small businesses across various industries, helping them understand the challenges and opportunities of international expansion,” she recalls.

One particularly rewarding experience involved guiding a small Canadian business in its early steps toward global trade.

“The client needed help with logistics, risk assessment, and adapting marketing strategies for different regions. It was incredible to see how foundational knowledge—what seems basic to us in the field—can be transformative for a business owner just starting out.”

Her passion for international business took her further, leading to a stint in South America during her master’s program. There, she explored and connected the local startup and innovation ecosystem, gaining valuable firsthand insights into how businesses in the region approached global trade.

“Meeting tech founders and entrepreneurs, I saw their resilience and creativity in overcoming challenges unique to their markets. It reinforced my belief in the power of global thinking.”

The FITTskills experience: bridging knowledge and application

Despite years of education and professional experience, Audrey still sought out ways to refine her expertise in international trade. That’s when she discovered the FITTskills program.

“I was looking to update my knowledge and expand my practical skills, and FITTskills was the perfect fit. The courses provided up-to-date insights and real-world applications that I could immediately integrate into my work.”

One of the most impactful courses for Audrey was International Trade Finance. “Understanding financing options, risk management, and payment methods is crucial in global trade. The course helped me work more effectively with key partners and strengthened my ability to support businesses in securing financial success internationally.”

She emphasizes the importance of not just learning the material but actively applying it.

“When you take a program like FITTskills, you can find ways to integrate the concepts into your job. It makes the learning experience far more valuable.”

Achieving the CITP, a mark of professional excellence

Earning the CITP designation in 2021 was a significant milestone. “The CITP represents excellence and lifelong learning in international trade. The world of global business is constantly evolving, and staying current is essential.”

Beyond the personal sense of achievement, the CITP designation has had tangible benefits. “Having ‘CITP’ next to my name has opened doors. It builds credibility among clients and colleagues, making it easier to establish trust and authority in the field. It has also connected me with a community of international trade professionals, leading to valuable collaborations.”

The power of mentorship and leadership

One of the most unexpected yet rewarding aspects of her journey has been mentorship. “Before moving to Canada, I didn’t realize the power of mentorship. Through a FITT mentorship program, I was matched with an experienced trade professional who provided invaluable guidance. Even though the formal program has ended, we still keep in touch.”

Now, Audrey is paying it forward, mentoring individuals across various fields.

“Mentorship is a way to give back and help others navigate the complexities of global trade. It’s something I plan to continue throughout my career.”

Beyond mentorship, she serves on the Global Startups Advisory Committee, where she provides strategic advice to startups entering the Canadian market. She also participates in a loan committee that evaluates funding applications from small businesses.

“Being involved in these initiatives allows me to support businesses at different stages of their growth and contribute to the broader trade ecosystem.”

Making an impact in the rapidly evolving future of trade

With a well-established global career, a CITP designation, and a passion for international business, Audrey envisions having an even broader impact in the coming years.

“My goal is to continue helping businesses expand into global markets, leveraging my network and expertise to drive success.”

She can see herself stepping into more thought leadership roles, participating in industry events, and contributing to discussions on the future of international trade.

“Global trade is evolving rapidly. Whether through advisory roles, content creation, or speaking engagements, I want to be part of shaping what’s next.”

For those considering the CITP designation or the FITTskills program, Audrey’s advice is clear: “Invest in your education and professional development. The world of international trade is constantly changing, and staying ahead requires continuous learning.”

“The CITP and FITTskills have been game-changers for me, and they can be for others too.”

Today and into the future, professionals like Audrey play a crucial role in bridging markets, fostering innovation, and helping businesses navigate the ever-changing landscape of international trade. Her journey—from a student in France to a globally recognized trade expert—is a testament to the power of lifelong learning, adaptability, and a passion for global business.

The post CITP Spotlight: Audrey Marie-Nely – Associate Vice-President, Banking, RBCx appeared first on Trade Ready.

When Sumit Khanna first set foot in the world of customer support at Canon India, he couldn’t have predicted the extraordinary global journey that awaited him. What started as a modest beginning in New Delhi would eventually take him across more than 30 countries, into boardrooms and classrooms alike.

Today, as the Managing Partner of White Cruz International and a respected business instructor in Canada, his story is a testament to the transformative power of international trade—and the value of credentials like the CITP in anchoring that success.

A global calling takes root

After his initial stint at Canon India, he chose to pursue a Master’s in Marketing Management. But it was a decision to learn Spanish at New Delhi’s Spanish Cultural Centre that would significantly alter the course of his career.

“I wanted to enhance my skills and broaden my career horizons,” he says. “Learning Spanish was a stepping stone into international markets.”

That leap came sooner than expected. He joined Eastman Auto & Power Limited as an Account Manager in International Marketing, quickly leveraging his newfound language skills to build trade relationships in Latin America.

“It was my first real taste of international business. I got to combine my marketing knowledge with language and culture, and that synergy was electric.”

His role took him to countries like Peru, Colombia, Argentina, and Ecuador, managing logistics, brand positioning, and competitive analysis. But more than anything, it was the cultural immersion that lit a fire. “Trying local foods, learning about their history, forming personal bonds—that’s when I knew this was what I wanted to do for the rest of my life.”

Leading with language and strategy

To deepen his expertise, he enrolled in an executive Export Management program at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), India’s premier foreign trade institution. The added credentials opened doors. He soon joined Groz Tools, where he rose to become Head of Latin America Business.

In this role, his leadership helped transform Groz into one of the most trusted hand tool brands in Latin America, Spain, and Israel, driving millions in exports.

“We built the brand from the ground up in those regions. It was intense travel, market research, negotiations, and above all—relationship building.”

It wasn’t all smooth sailing. When he chose to enter Israel, he had to learn a completely new market from scratch. “I studied the region for months before stepping in. It was a challenge, but that’s what made it rewarding. We eventually established a strong distributor network there.”

His success in this role marked him as one of the youngest and most successful export managers in the Indian manufacturing industry. He was soon tapped by a publicly listed manufacturer as Export Head, managing exports of home and automotive lighting products under the “Halonix” and “Phoenix” brands. The company’s subsidiaries in Germany and Luxembourg gave him access to key European markets, while he also managed operations across SAARC nations, the Middle East, and South Korea.

Building bridges across borders

Throughout his career, he has made business travel into a true form of cultural diplomacy. “Being one of the first Indian executives traveling to far-off Latin American markets drew a lot of attention. Buyers were curious about India, our food, our films. I got to answer questions about Bollywood in Spanish!”

Those moments of cultural exchange were more than charming anecdotes, they were the foundation to valuable business relationships.

“Trust is everything in international trade. And trust grows when people see that you respect their culture and are willing to learn from it.”

His travels also gave him memories to last a lifetime. From standing at the equator line in Ecuador to visiting the underground salt cathedral in Colombia. He recalls viewing the powerful Cataratas Falls in Brazil and hiking Machu Picchu in Peru. Each of these unique experiences helped shape a worldview grounded in empathy, adaptability, and curiosity.

Stepping into entrepreneurship and education

With more than a decade of international experience under his belt, he made the leap to entrepreneurship. In India, he founded White Cruz International, an export consultancy and indenting agency representing major brands across the automotive, construction, hardware, and steel industries.

His story took a new turn in 2022, when he moved to Canada and transitioned into academia. Today, he teaches Global Business Management at Trios-Mohawk College and serves as sessional faculty at Trebas-Fleming College in Toronto.

“Teaching has given me the opportunity to give back—to share everything I’ve learned in real-world trade with students who are about to start their global journeys.”

His influence extends beyond the classroom. He’s spoken at colleges across Brazil, Mexico, and India, and recently contributed as an international trade consultant & Spanish language expert for Latincouver, a Vancouver-based non-profit that promotes trade between British Columbia and Latin America.

“It’s one thing to do the work yourself,” he explains. “But when you can help prepare the next generation to succeed in global trade—that’s real impact.”

Recognition, validation, and a future-ready credential

Despite his many accomplishments, he knew that credibility in Canada’s competitive business environment required more than just experience. That’s why he set his sights on the CITP designation. “I wanted something that would solidify my expertise and signal my commitment to the field—not just locally, but globally.”

He earned the CITP through the executive path in 2022, and he describes the moment as deeply personal. “My happiness knew no bounds. It felt like everything I had worked for. Fifteen years of dedication to international trade had come full circle.”

Beyond validation, the CITP designation has offered practical benefits. “It enhances my credibility in Canada and has already opened new doors. It shows clients and colleagues alike that I meet the highest standards in global trade.”

A look ahead

Looking forward, he sees the CITP playing a pivotal role in his evolving career. Whether it’s leading business development, growing his consultancy, or continuing to teach and mentor, the designation serves as both a foundation and a launchpad.

“International trade is constantly changing—new markets, new risks, new technologies. The CITP isn’t just a badge; it’s a reminder to keep learning, stay current, and always operate with integrity.”

His advice for newcomers to the field? Patience and preparation. “Don’t expect quick wins. Learn the culture. Do your homework. The relationships you build—those are what carry you through.”

It’s fitting advice from someone who has built a career by crisscrossing the globe, one relationship at a time. From the bustling markets of Latin America to the lecture halls of Toronto, from brand-building in Israel to volunteering in British Columbia, his journey proves that international trade is more than a business. It’s a way of life.

And with his CITP designation in hand, he’s not just looking back at what he’s accomplished, he’s looking ahead to the next great frontier in global commerce.

The post CITP Spotlight: Sumit Khanna – Managing Partner, White Cruz International appeared first on Trade Ready.

In the ever-evolving world of international trade, standing out requires more than just ambition—it demands continuous learning, adaptability, and recognized expertise. For one accomplished professional, the journey from a biology student to a Certified International Trade Professional (CITP) has been transformative, marked by diverse roles, global projects, and a relentless pursuit of growth.

Hardik Panchal, Director, Export sales at Worldest Exports, has built a career that spans global market expansion, international joint ventures, and sustainable trade initiatives. His contributions have driven multimillion-dollar export growth, created hundreds of jobs, and positioned him as a leading expert in global trade facilitation.

Helping companies diversify into new global markets from the start

Hardik’s journey in international trade began in 2007, when he joined a multinational pharmaceutical company Vipro Lifescience as an International Marketing Officer. His talent for cross-cultural negotiations and market strategy enabled him to facilitate new trade deals in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

“I started my career in international trade because of a combination of personal interest and strategic opportunities,” Hardik recalls

Over the years, Hardik has played a pivotal role in expanding exports for companies across multiple industries, including pharmaceuticals, plastics, chemicals, food, and textiles.

In his tenure at a leading chemical producer from 2017 to 2023, he successfully increased international sales by an impressive 60%, helping the company establish a strong presence in South East Asia, North America and Europe.

One of his key projects involved transforming a domestic chemical brand into a leading global name by expanding its global reach and distribution network within a short span of time.

I thrive on helping businesses enter new markets and achieve sustainable, long-term growth.

In addition to his job, Hardik has been representing WhipAppeal Inc. company based in Ohio, USA for over a decade. His involvement with WhipAppeal has been instrumental in the marketing, sourcing, and OEM production of their Sportswear, School uniforms and boxing products as well as negotiating key trade agreements with vendors and customers.

Through his representation, Hardik has led global marketing initiatives, positioning WhipAppeal as a competitive brand in international markets,identified and sourced reliable suppliers across various regions, ensuring the quality and cost-effectiveness of products, managed OEM production relationships, coordinating production schedules and ensuring product quality and timely delivery, and negotiated favorable terms with both vendors and customers, ensuring mutually beneficial contracts and expanding WhipAppeal’s market presence.

These efforts helped WhipAppeal Inc. significantly expand its product distribution network, secure major contracts, and successfully navigate complex international trade regulations.

Formal international business training and a multicultural learning environment in Singapore

Recognizing the need to enhance his business acumen, Hardik pursued an Advanced Diploma in Business Management from AEC College, Singapore in 2011. This experience immersed him in a multicultural learning environment, allowing him to gain deep insights into international market trends, trade policies, and supply chain optimization.

Training in Singapore, with classmates from diverse nationalities, gave me firsthand exposure to global business strategies and trade regulations.

During this time, he visited Singapore’s world-class shipping port, where he learned about merchanting exports and advanced supply chain models, skills that later helped him streamline complex export operations for multiple businesses.

Driving multimillion-dollar international trade projects

Hardik’s global business impact extends beyond individual companies, as he has played a direct role in major international trade and investment projects.

One of the achievements he is most proud of was his leadership in a $6 million foreign direct investment (FDI) joint venture in South Africa between Vintron Infotech (a division of VLCP Ltd) and Ventura Infotech (Pty) Ltd., where he co-managed market research and entry strategies, regulatory compliance and trade facilitation, JV structuring and supply chain coordination, and installing the manufacturing facility.

This major initiative led to the creation of 170 sustainable jobs in Johannesburg and positioned the company as a key player in the African market.

Want to learn more about the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP®|FIBP®) designation? See why it’s the world’s most recognized designation for competency and credibility in global business.

The CITP designation as a strategic move

After over 15 years of hands-on experience, the desire to benchmark his skills led Hardik to the CITP designation.

“I was curious to see what credentials I could earn to validate my experience. I googled ‘top standards in international trade’ and found FITT.”

Conversations with existing CITPs and those in the process of applying for the designation confirmed its value.

“The CITP designation aligned perfectly with my career goals. It’s one of the most prestigious credentials in international trade, recognized globally, including by the Canadian government and the World Trade Center Association in New York.”

The certification process, supported by FITT’s responsive team, was seamless and Hardik considers achieving the CITP both a professional milestone and a personal triumph.

“It symbolizes my commitment to lifelong learning and excellence in international trade. It has enhanced my credibility, allowing me to connect with senior industry leaders and be available for new opportunities.”

Sharing international trade expertise through teaching and mentorship

Beyond business success and personal achievements, Hardik is passionate about mentorship. Throughout his career he’s had the support of leaders who took the time to help develop his industry knowledge.

He has also acted as a mentor himself, service as a faculty member at IMPEXPERTS, where he trained over 500 MSMEs and entrepreneurs in export strategies and a trainer for international business programs teaching trade finance, buyer identification, and market expansion.

“I believe in knowledge-sharing because I had mentor who guided me early in my career. Now, I want to do the same for others.”

His guidance have helped numerous businesses scale internationally, directly impacting trade volumes and economic growth.

Looking ahead to a future rooted in sustainability

Looking ahead, Hardik is focusing on sustainable trade practices and ESG compliance, aiming to help SMEs transition to low-carbon supply chains and eco-friendly products.

“The next five years will see a massive shift toward sustainable trade. Companies that adopt green alternatives early will have a competitive advantage,” he predicts.

He is currently working on export promotion initiatives that assist businesses in aligning with global ESG standards, ensuring compliance with new trade regulations in North America and Europe.

“I want to introduce sustainable business practices to SMEs globally, helping them offer low-carbon products and green alternatives.” He foresees significant shifts in international trade trends over the next 5-10 years and aim to help businesses stay ahead.

“I want to help businesses stay current with the market trend so they are ready to offer low carbon emission products and green alternatives and take advantage of this trend before it becomes too competitive.”

Hardik foresees his CITP designation will continue to play a an important role in further building his career.

“It enhances the credibility of my work, expands my influence in international trade, and unlocks new opportunities.”

Reflecting on his career journey so far, one piece of advice stands out: “Focusing on building relationships and being consistent is the way to go.”

The post CITP Spotlight: Hardik Panchal – Export Marketing Manager, Worldest Exports appeared first on Trade Ready.

The WTO’s revised forecasts project modest growth in global trade, driven by easing inflation and interest rates, but caution remains due to geopolitical tensions and unresolved regional conflicts. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and South America, are set to lead growth, while advanced economies navigate persistent inflation and evolving supply chain dynamics.

From the potential impact of U.S. trade policies under the incoming Trump presidency, to the continued growth of e-commerce and technological innovations in trade finance, the year promises to reshape global commerce.

Risks such as economic downturn, supply chain disruption, and geopolitical instability create an atmosphere that highlights the need for agility, adaptability, and diversification in 2025.

Read on for our 10 2025 trends.

Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2024 had in store.

• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2024
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2023 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2022 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2021 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2020
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2019
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2017

1. Global trade growth expected amidst transition and uncertainty

In October 2024, the WTO released their revised global trade outlook for the remainder of 2024, and looking ahead at 2025. In it they increased the growth forecast for world merchandise trade in 2025 by 0.3% from the previous estimate, bringing it to 3.3%.

The WTO clearly pointed out that the risks to this forecast were for growth to be slower, rather than higher. Meaning that uncertainty in geopolitical tensions, policy (this was before the results to the U.S. federal election were known), and regional conflicts could end up reducing growth, despite the predicted increase.

However, the WTO does see gradual trade recovery continuing in 2025 among declining inflation and therefore lowering interest rates, which generally stimulate consumer spending and investment.

Overall, it looks like 2025 will be another active and transitional year for trade.

2. Stubborn inflation and uncertainty in 2025 global economic outlook

Global inflation is slowly coming down from the global peak of 9.4% in 2022 during the pandemic. The global inflation rate is expected to come in around 4% during 2025 according to the IMF.

Most of the advanced economies will come in under 2% in 2025, with developing economies averaging just under 6%.

The major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank are all expected to continue to ease their interest rates over the course of 2025.

While the supply chain disruptions that brought inflation up to its 2022 high have mostly been resolved, new risks remain in play, as we’ll discuss in more detail later in this article. The above-mentioned geopolitical and trade tensions could have an upwards impact on inflation as well.

Modest growth is the overall prediction when it comes to the global economy in the year ahead, particularly in emerging markets. The caveat being that challenges remain, and there is still a significant amount of transition and uncertainty in the global environment that throws risk at any solid economic prediction.

3. Enhanced customer service in e-commerce delivery

The pandemic accelerated a shift in consumer behaviour, driving widespread adoption of e-commerce, particularly for “big and bulky” items like furniture and appliances. Today, online shopping continues to dominate with consumers expecting streamlined delivery experiences, including real-time tracking, timely scheduling, and exceptional service.

For retailers, delivery is no longer just about price but providing seamless customer experiences. This trend has intensified competition, especially as giants like Walmart and Amazon are projected to dominate 60% of online retail by 2027, prompting smaller retailers to prioritize affordability, speed, and personalized service.

Technological integration is key, and many retailers are bringing in platforms and tools that can enable real-time visibility, automated operations, and flexible scaling for peak periods. Companies are also enhancing services, such as pre-assembly and installation, to meet evolving consumer expectations. However, challenges remain, including rising operational costs, workforce shortages, and the need for advanced supply chain solutions.

Despite hurdles, the last-mile delivery market is poised for growth, driven by increasing online sales of bulky goods. Companies focusing on consumer trust, technological innovation, and efficient operations are likely to thrive in this competitive landscape.

4. Threats of supply chain disruptions continue in 2025

Many of the supply chain disruptions that plagued shippers throughout 2024 continue to threaten operations into 2025, including Red Sea diversions, the risk of labour disruptions, and tariff threats. This means fluctuating demand and high rates are likely for the year ahead.

To mitigate the risk of delays and disruption companies are turning to “frontloading”, filling their warehouses early to ensure they have access to the inventory they need to serve their customers, ahead of any incoming tariffs.

Canada just weathered a difficult holiday season with the Canada Post strike impacting deliveries during peak season. This labour disruption is estimated to have cost more than $1billion dollars in damages to small Canadian businesses, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

In the U.S., the USMX – the union representing container shipping lines and port operators along the East and Gulf Coast ports – are currently on a short-term contract extension that is set to expire on January 15, 2025. If they fail to reach an agreement with the International Longshorement’s Association (ILA), any resulting labour action could disrupt almost 50% of U.S. ocean freight volumes.

Between political, environmental, and labour disruptions, things remain uncertain in the international supply chain industry in 2025.

5. Trade Wars & Tariffs & Trump

Donald Trump’s second presidential term may bring significant changes to global trade policy, including increased tariffs and retaliatory measures. These actions are expected to heighten global economic uncertainty, disrupt supply chains, and strain international trade relationships. Analysts predict tariffs could be used as leverage in negotiations on issues like immigration and foreign currency policies.

Europe, already grappling with internal political challenges, faces particular risk with U.S. tariffs. These measures could reduce European exports, hamper economic growth, and complicate efforts to stabilize the eurozone economy.

China, a primary target of U.S. trade policies, may retaliate by targeting American agricultural exports and diversifying its trade relationships. Countries like Mexico and Vietnam could benefit as companies seek alternative supply chain locations.

U.S. corporations dependent on global supply chains are preparing for potential disruptions, while economists warn of unintended consequences, including higher consumer costs and distorted production networks.

The possibility of widespread retaliatory measures raises fears of a global trade war, with Europe, China, and North America among the most affected regions. But going into the start of 2025, it remains uncertain whether Trump will follow through on these threatened tariffs and to what degree.

6. Digital transformation in trade finance technology

Despite an incredible amount of work being done, the digital transformation of trade finance is a slow process. The complexity involved in creating and standardizing policy, regulations, systems, and languages presents enormous challenges. But progress continues to be made.

According to Euromoney, major financial institutions including DBS, ING, Lloyd’s and Santander are seeing 30-70% of trade transactions initiated digitally.

Among TradeReady’s most-read articles of 2024 were 2 articles focused on TradeTech and electronic trade documentation. So we know this is a topic to keep up with in 2025.

We’ll be checking in with CITP Craig Atkinson, an active member of the WEF’s TradeTech community, throughout the year for further developments in digital tools that will help businesses trade more easily, effectively, and efficiently.

7. Growing focus on skills-based hiring and retention in global trade roles

“Skills-based hiring”, or hiring based on evidence of a candidate’s specific skills rather than years of experience or formal education, has been a growing trend since the term was first coined back in 2012.

The upsides include a decrease in turnover, reduction in training time and cost, increased productivity, and universality (a more standardized process of finding a vetting candidates makes hiring easier and increases inclusivity).

For international trade roles especially, the complexity and specificity of skills needed to successfully complete trade transactions and processes makes this hiring strategy particularly useful.

And this trend is growing worldwide:

• This study found that 79% of companies now look for skills when hiring, vs. 21% that prioritize experience and education.
• Between 2017 and 2019, 46% of middle-skill and 31% of high-skill jobs moved away from requiring job applicants to have a formal college education.
• In India, where 50% of recruiters use skills as a key factor when searching for candidates, skills-based hiring is also on the rise.
• In 2022 the US government released new guidelines on applying a skills-based approach to hiring for federal positions.

In 2025, “right-skilling” will be a top trend in talent acquisition as companies continue to focus more on finding the right people for the job, rather than the right degree, or years of experience.

Secure, verifiable digital credentials will continue to play a key role in the finding and hiring of individuals with the right skills to do the job in the year ahead.

8. Regional trade growth

In 2025, global trade growth is projected to be led by emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, South America and the CIS region. As a result of expected incoming tariffs for goods entering the U.S. market from major trading partners like China, many companies are looking for new manufacturing locations. This could continue to benefit other manufacturing regions like Vietnam.

Overall, according to the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade is expected to increase in 2025, with the following regional trade forecasts:

• Asia: The fastest growing region for exports and imports, with a 4.7% increase in exports and a 5.1% increase in imports
• Middle East: The fastest growing region for imports, with a 9.0% increase
• South America: A 4.6% increase in exports and a 5.6% increase in imports, but a small decline in exports (-0.1%)
• CIS region: A 4.5% increase in exports and a 1.1% increase in imports
• Africa: A 2.5% increase in exports and a 1.0% increase in imports
• North America: A 2.1% increase in exports and a 3.3% increase in imports
• Europe: A -1.4% increase in exports and a -2.3% increase in imports

Friendshoring, nearshoring, and supply chain diversification will likely continue to transform global value chains in the year ahead.

9. WEF’s top 10 global risks

The World Economic Forum puts together an annual list of the most urgent global risks that organizations face in its Global Risks Report. As we await the release of the 2025 report in January, we can expect a continuation of many of the risks expected to be forefront in the time period of 2024-2026 listed in last year’s report.

These risks included, in descending order:

1. Misinformation and disinformation
2. Extreme weather events
3. Societal polarization
4. Cyber insecurity
5. Interstate armed conflict
6. Lack of economic opportunity
7. Inflation
8. Involuntary migration
9. Economic downturn
10. Pollution

As you peruse the list, you’ll see that several of them are already included in the top international trade trends we’ll be watching in the year ahead. We’ll be ready for updates in January.

10. AI use-cases for trade activities

Artificial intelligence is ubiquitous, groundbreaking, a timesaving gamechanger, a cybersecurity and intellectual property nightmare, it’s good, it’s bad, it’s ugly. It’s everywhere. And it’s certainly not going away in 2025, despite some backlash.

Within the international trade environment we’ll be following along with AI developments and use cases in the following areas:

• AI in hiring processes
• AI in supply chain visibility
• AI in supply chain management & sustainability
• AI in customs & documentation
• AI in inventory management
• AI in demand forecasting
• AI in trade finance

The post 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2025 appeared first on Trade Ready.

Manpreet Kaur’s career in international business brought her from marketing vehicles like tractors and cars to managing risk in international trade financing. When her career and passions brought her from India and Canada, she recognized that the CITP designation would be an asset as she established herself in a new country.

She found that earning the CITP helped validate her global experience. Earning this designation wasn’t just a career milestone, but a strategic move to validate her extensive experience and enhance her credibility in a new country. Having an internationally recognized designation can help an experienced professional like Manpreet showcase her experience in a way many professionals trust and recognize.

Reflecting on her various roles in exports, marketing, and finance, Manpreet describes one constant throughout her career.

“My qualifications and my interests kept on leading me to develop in the profession of international trade.”

How education and a spark of inspiration directed her career path

Manpreet became interested in international business and trade while working on her MBA in India. At the time, she was especially fascinated with applying marketing techniques internationally.

During her third semester of her MBA, she started working for Sonalika International where she had the opportunity to work on market research, studying African markets. She took a few months off from her degree to immerse herself in this new job before returning to complete the degree. She especially appreciated the solutions-finding approach to international business that her training and education helped her hone.

“My boss said to me, ‘You’re an MBA, and an MBA is a person who never comes with a problem.’ They always come with the solution.”

“Yes, you have to perform. You have to be the person to give the solution.”

Whether earning an MBA or CITP designation, Manpreet has always sought opportunities to deepen her expertise while also continuing to gain practical real world experience.

Combining hands-on experience with a commitment to education

She moved on to a position with Honda Cars India Limited, where her international business background led to her working in the imports division. The cars were manufactured for Honda in India using parts imported from Thailand and Japan.

“This experience of seeing the whole process from imported components coming in, to assembly, and then either being sold locally or exported from India was fascinating,” she said.

She also took minutes during meetings with business delegates from China and from American engine manufacturer Cummins. Being present during these meetings helped to expand her knowledge of export processes and trade.

How her career evolved from marketing exports to trade finance

Within a couple of years, she started to pivot from marketing to trade finance when she accepted a position with ECGC Ltd (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation). She started from the ground up, as an executive assistant, and over the years, worked her way up to Senior Manager of the Buyer Underwriting Department, where her team managed underwriting risk for buyers across a portfolio of 20 countries.

She explained, “I gained a lot of experience in international trade finance, through a company that was under the Ministry of Commerce in the Government of India. It can be compared to the work that Export Development Canada does.”

She recalls an incident where her international trade experience helped her deal with the complexities of exports in the global market. An exporter’s consignment was stuck at a port in Iran as a result of default by the buyer. This exporter had taken a due cover from her employer. Manpreet applied her knowledge and established relationships to help that exporter get complete payment and fully resolve the issue.

“I leveraged my relations developed over a long period of time in the field and in the country to find an alternative buyer for the consignment in a matter of just about a week,” she recalled. The exporter and her managers appreciated how promptly she helped resolve the complicated issue.

During her time at ECGC she was promoted from second-in-charge to branch head, and finally senior manager. Manpreet was also nominated as Young Professional Initiative member of Berne Union in 2019. She said she felt honored to receive this recognition from such a well-known organization.

Manpreet’s colleague shares this wonderful insight into her impact on the organization:

“I had the privilege to work with her, while she was in ECGC as a Senior Manager. She played a pivotal role in promoting exports of the country through her dedication and commitment to work.”

“ECGC and my organisation EEPCIndia, both under Ministry of Commerce & Industry, used to collaborate on many occasions, to promote and organise export promotion and trade finance efforts for Exporters in Jalandhar (Northern India ).

She was in command of her subject and used to convince her clients by virtue of her understanding and knowledge of international trade. ECGC, which was a lesser known organisation to exporters in insurance sector, became a popular choice for exporters due to her ability to sell her ideas and services. I enjoyed the ease of working with her and wish her success in her future endeavours,” says Opinder Singh, Executive Senior Deputy Director, EEPCIndia New Delhi.

Want to learn more about the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP®|FIBP®) designation? See why it’s the world’s most recognized designation for competency and credibility in global business.

How the CITP helped her relocate and get established in Canada

Manpreet became interested in opportunities in Canada while liaising with Export Development Canada (EDC) in her previous role at ECGC. While working towards obtaining her Personal Residency in Canada, Manpreet was hired by Intact Financial Corporation in 2022. She felt incredibly fortunate that she was able to find a job in Canada before arriving in the country.

After moving to Canada, she decided that she wanted to earn a certification that would help validate her extensive experience in India and help her establish credibility in a new country. She opted for the CITP “because this exactly matches to what I was looking for to validate my experience and knowledge so far in my career.”

She connected with the FITT’s certification team and then completed the Executive Path to the CITP.

“I felt elated when I received the email that I have obtained the CITP/FIBP designation,” Manpreet said.

“The CITP validates my years of experience, hard work and commitment to the field of international trade. I felt proud about the fact that my experience and knowledge have been recognized by a respected global organization.”

Looking forward to a bright future in international trade

According to Manpreet, the component of CITPs’ commitment to ongoing professional development motivated her to continue to improve her knowledge. She hopes it positions her well for strategic positions and leadership roles in Canadian companies.

“I think the CITP designation will open new career opportunities and help me to dive into future advisor and relationship management roles in support of exporters. I want to be an active participant in the world of international markets here in Canada and beyond.”

The CITP designation both play an important role in Manpreet’s future career plans. In addition to building on her experience and knowledge, having an internationally recognized certification helps her build trust with prospective employers and clients.

Manpreet has some great words of wisdom that she has seen play out in her own career:

“It’s your passion that drives you to do the work and your involvement that actually matters. If you have passion towards a field and you get into doing work that fascinates you, I think every person can do wonders in their field.

That’s how it’s worked for me. I was always fascinated by international trade from the day I did my masters I knew I wanted to do something in international business and I followed and chased my dreams.”

The post CITP Spotlight: Manpreet Kaur – Trade Credit Insurance Underwriter, Intact appeared first on Trade Ready.

Michael Whitmarsh has built an impressive career in international trade, with a focus on supply chain management, corporate development, and global expansion. His journey, driven by a passion for business and exploration, illustrates the profound impact that mentors and continual learning experiences can have on a career.

An international career from the beginning

Michael’s career in international trade began at Weatherford International, where he managed U.S.-based purchasing and global logistics across 21 countries. It was the perfect starting point for a young professional fresh out of the University of Houston, where he earned a double major in Economics and Spanish.

“Being born and raised in Houston, the oilfield industry was a natural calling for me,” Michael explains.

His dual expertise in supply chain and international relations helped him transition into the global scene.

From the outset, Michael’s work exposed him to the complexities of international business, allowing him to combine his love for travel with his skills for business development.

“Once I started doing business across borders, I developed a passion for international trade.”

He continued to gain experience with Holloway, an NOV distributor, where his exposure to global markets solidified his passion and set him on the path to become a leader in the oilfield industry.

Leading Block 4 Oilfield, LLC

Today, Michael leads Block 4 Oilfield, LLC, one of the fastest-growing oilfield companies, with operations in the U.S., South America, and the Middle East. Under his leadership, the company has expanded through strategic sales, acquisitions, and entry into international markets.

“I’ve spearheaded the growth from day one through my understanding of international markets, business development, sales, and marketing.”

His dual expertise in supply chain management and corporate development has allowed him to navigate the complexities of global trade and strategically grow Block 4 Oilfield.

“My career has been two-pronged. My first ten years focused on supply chain, purchasing, and logistics, while the second half has been corporate development, setting up distributors, and entering different markets,” Michael said.

This unique combination of skills has made him an effective leader, capable of taking his company into new and challenging regions around the globe.

The Role of FITTskills and the CITP designation in his growth

For Michael, the FITTskills program and the CITP designation provided the formal education and credentials necessary to elevate his career in international trade. His decision to pursue the FITTskills courses stemmed from his interactions with Canada’s Trade Commissioner Service (TCS) and Export Development Canada (EDC), two organizations that played a pivotal role in his understanding of international business. Michael explains,

“I knew that FITT, being associated with EDC, was an outstanding organization to seek training and obtain certification from.”

Michael found the FITTskills courses particularly valuable in areas where he needed to strengthen his expertise, such as trade finance. “Finance was the side of trade where I was weaker before the training,” he admitted, but the courses helped him “add a lot of skills to [his] belt.”

His favorite course, Feasibility of International Trade, gave him a deeper understanding of the risks and benefits of entering new markets.

“It provided useful tools in risk analysis and risk management, tools that I use on a daily basis in my position.”

His CITP designation, which he earned through the FITTskills program, also helped Michael distinguish himself as a global trade expert. “I’m extremely proud to have the CITP designation and to present myself as an expert in international trade,” Michael said.

The credential not only proves his expertise but also connects him to a network of professionals who share his dedication to ethical business practices and ongoing professional development.

A world of lessons through global experiences

Michael’s career has taken him to over 20 countries, providing him with rich cultural experiences and an understanding of how different regions approach international trade. He shared some of his favorite stories, such as working in the Middle East, where relationship-building is paramount before discussing business.

“In Abu Dhabi, we would talk about families and personal experiences over tea or eat Mandi on the floor in a traditional manner before business even came up,” Michael recounted. This cultural insight helped him adapt to various regions and avoid the pitfalls of international etiquette.

His experiences in Latin America, Singapore, and the Middle East have taught him to “do as the Romans do” — to adapt to local customs and respect cultural differences. “You’ll pick up on things really quickly,” Michael advised.

He stressed the importance of researching local customs and relying on networks like expat communities or experienced colleagues for guidance when entering new markets.

Inspirational mentorship from an industry leader

A key influence in Michael Whitmarsh’s career has been his mentor, John Samuels III, a legendary figure in the energy and commodities trading industries. Michael met John during his time in the Middle East, and they collaborated on several projects, including commodity trading deals between the U.S. and the Middle East, as well as launching an oilfield rental company in Sharjah, UAE.

John’s incredible career trajectory—starting from humble beginnings in Galveston, Texas, to building a corporate empire with diverse holdings—served as a powerful inspiration to Michael.

John’s vast knowledge of business, his grace under pressure, and his ability to intertwine personal life with professional success left a lasting impression.

“What really impressed me with him is that he has all this knowledge, all this personal life experience… he’s probably the most interesting man in the world.”

John, often referred to as “The Great Gatsby” due to his larger-than-life persona, had a profound understanding of commodity trading and global markets, especially through his role in helping to launch the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange.

For Michael, learning from someone with such a rich blend of business acumen and personal integrity was invaluable.

“He handled everything with such grace… despite all of his accomplishments, he was still so humble,” Michael said.

This mentorship not only shaped Michael’s approach to business but also deepened his passion for international trade and global markets.

Among his many accomplishments, Michael is particularly proud of establishing the first international distribution hub as an NOV distributor in Dubai.

“I performed all the market intelligence prior to entering the market, found the lowest-cost ports, staffed the company, and adapted the policies to local cultural and legal requirements.”

This project not only positioned his company as a master stocking distributor for the Eastern Hemisphere but also highlighted his strategic expertise in global business development.

Michael also sites his work with the Canadian Trade Commissioner’s office and EDC as motivating factors in his career development. These organizations helped him navigate international markets, meet high-profile players, and secure contracts with drilling contractors in regions like Argentina and Cuba.

Michael’s experience working with these agencies further cemented his passion for international trade and gave him a profound respect for the role government organizations can play in supporting businesses.

Looking to the future

Michael believes his CITP designation will continue to play a pivotal role in his future career.

“The CITP designation will open many doors to opportunities that I may not have otherwise been offered.”

As he continues to grow Block 4 Oilfield and explore new global markets, Michael remains committed to leveraging his expertise and credentials to drive success. Whether it’s through acquisitions, mergers, or strategic partnerships, his future looks bright, fueled by the knowledge and tools he’s gained through the FITTskills program and the CITP designation.

Want to learn more about the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP®|FIBP®) designation? See why it’s the world’s most recognized designation for competency and credibility in global business.

Adding credibility to experience and expertise with the CITP designation

For those considering taking their business into an international market, Michael has one key piece of advice:

“Understand the tools related to international trade finance. From Letters of Credit to Export Credit Agencies, each tool is extremely helpful to hedge a growth strategy and to best position oneself in a given market.”

With his deep experience, global perspective, and the CITP designation, Michael Whitmarsh is not just a leader in the oilfield industry — he’s a prime example of how education and professional certification can propel a career to international heights.

The post CITP Spotlight: Michael Whitmarsh, MBA – President & CEO, Block 4 Oilfield, LLC appeared first on Trade Ready.

Meetali’s career in international trade began in 2015 when she transitioned from a global consulting firm in the private sector to the UK’s Department for Business and Trade in the public sector. In this role, she assisted British companies to enter and expand their operations in India, focusing on sectors like Financial Services and Energy.

“It was a complete shift from the private sector to an exciting world of international trade, export promotion, and market development where I generated businesses opportunities for British companies. I provided strategic advice and executed sector-specific trade promotion initiatives to help clients access opportunities, establish strategic alliances in the market, and grow their business in India.”

Meetali shares an example of her success: she helped a single-brand retailer get their FDI application approved to enter the Indian market, set up their brick-and-mortar stores, and sell their products. Over the next few years, the company invested more capital, generated strong sales revenue, created jobs, and went on to become a popular brand.

“I reflect on the role I played when I see their popularity in India. Over time, they established themselves as leaders in their product segment.”

“One of my proudest professional accomplishments was to contribute to this business’ journey in the initial phase and witness their growth trajectory.”

Contributing to UK-India trade relations post-Brexit

The 2016 Brexit marked a significant turning point for the UK and its trading partners. This transition necessitated a fresh approach to trade policies and agreements with countries like India. Meetali found new opportunities to leverage her expertise in the evolving landscape and progressed in her role, moving into market access and trade policy and working on government-to-government dialogues to champion equitable conditions for British businesses in India.

“I undertook policy advocacy work, engaged closely with the Government of India on behalf of the British government to advance the market access agenda for British companies. I worked as a core member of the policy team to create a level playing field for British businesses operating in the Indian market and resolved specific barriers related to ‘ease of doing business’ during my tenure.”

During that period, the UK began developing its independent trade policy with various countries, including India, which required extensive groundwork. This helped Meetali gain valuable experience and a deep understanding of the markets and governmental functions in both India and the UK.

Eager to expand her knowledge, Meetali chose to continue her work with other foreign governments, bringing her unique perspective to new challenges and building a career in the international trade arena. 

Helping Canadian businesses expand in global markets

In 2022, she joined the Trade Commissioner Service with Global Affairs Canada, leading the infrastructure sector. In this role, she helped Canadian companies do business in India and was one of the youngest trade commissioners in Global Affairs Canada’s overseas network.

“I helped clients prepare for the overseas market. Factors such as competitor intelligence, regulatory compliance, market knowledge, and understanding customer preferences were crucial. In certain sectors, the sales cycle can be long and requires commitment and perseverance from business owners.”

“Clients should be prepared to invest time in understanding the opportunity landscape, establishing strong partnerships, and building a strong network. Success does not come overnight.”

Shifting markets, same client focus

While working with the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service from the New Delhi office, Meetali was inspired to make her biggest move yet and immigrate to Canada.

In 2023, Meetali settled in Toronto, Canada, where she found an excellent opportunity to tap into her skills as Market Advisor – Digital Tech for Enterprise Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for supporting Irish businesses in global markets. In this role, she leads the digital technologies portfolio of clients in the cyber security and digital entertainment sectors in Canada, helping Irish innovators find meaningful partnerships with Canadian organizations.

Recently, Meetali attended the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) to support an Irish client company in her portfolio. Later this month she will lead a delegation of Irish animation companies for a market study visit to Canada promoting co-production opportunities between Canadian and Irish studios developing their own IP.

Throughout her career, Meetali has found that keeping client interests as the primary focus is crucial in international trade. This might seem like straightforward good business sense, but it can be more challenging than it appears. Meetali explains how she applies this philosophy in her current role with Enterprise Ireland.

“I believe the essence of an international trade advisor’s role is to provide bespoke advice to clients keeping their best interest and potential success in mind.”

“For instance, Canada often serves as a cost-effective gateway into the North American market, offering ample opportunities to introduce new innovations. This environment helps companies gain a technical edge in a rapidly evolving world.”

Professional development and well-earned validation of expertise

Meetali’s keen interest in market entry strategy and the various options available to companies looking at international expansion is evident in her career. As she progressed through the six courses in the FITTskills program, she particularly enjoyed the International Market Entry Strategies course.

“My favourite course was International Market Entry Strategies. It was designed in a way that was very engaging. The structure of the course modules and sub-topics was quite interesting. Discussing different routes to market, types of investments, or options like greenfield or brownfield, direct or indirect channels, joint ventures, mergers, or acquisitions, has enhanced my ability to provide strategic advice to our Irish companies weighing their options in market entry.”

“I have applied the concepts I learned [in the International Market Entry Strategies course] in my practical day-to-day job, which is why I find them so relevant and interesting.”

Upon successfully completing the FITTskills program and earning her FITT Diploma in International Trade, Meetali was encouraged to validate her professional development by applying for the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP) designation.

Looking forward, Meetali wants to continue to grow her knowledge of the Canadian market and help her international clients find success there through her guidance and strategic advice on the opportunities available in that market.

From the very start, Meetali Kashyap has brought her intelligence and capacity to learn and grow in new markets into her work. In this she has met with resounding success, both in her personal professional advancement and for her clients and their businesses. We are proud to welcome her to the CITP community.

“I value the industry-wide recognition the designation offers, which will enhance my career progression opportunities. Earning the CITP has established that I am an experienced international trade professional.”

The post CITP Spotlight: Meetali Kashyap – Market Advisor, Enterprise Ireland appeared first on Trade Ready.

Some of these topics keep reappearing year after year, due to new developments and their continued place of prominence in the minds of global trade practitioners. This year the atmosphere of volatility and uncertainty continues, leaving many to question the value in forecasting at all. But, as global economist Peter Hall put it:

“Here’s the deal: forecasting is alive and well, if the impact of structural changes is properly understood. Data and cyclical fundamentals together show that the global economy is stronger than news reports have indicated. This will help it to absorb higher interest rates without drastic fallout, and to continue growing for a number of years to come. To do this successfully, more capacity will be needed to deal with rising demand.”  – Watch the full video “Is Forecasting Passe?”

Read on for our 10 2024 trends.

Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2023 had in store.

• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2023 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2022 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2021 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2020
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2019
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2017

1. 2024 global trade outlook “uncertain but pessimistic”

Not exactly a cheerful headline. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its Global Trade Update on December 11, projecting a highly uncertain and generally pessimistic outlook for 2024.

Factors contributing to this outlook include ongoing geopolitical tensions, escalating debt, economic fragility, lower demand in developed countries, reduced trade in East Asia, an increase in trade-restrictive measures, commodity price volatility, and lengthening supply chains, especially between China and the United States.

Despite these challenges, the report notes some positive trends in 2023, including a slight increase in trade volumes, indicating resilient global demand for imports, and a $500 billion growth in trade in services, boosted by delayed COVID-19 recovery.

The report also highlighted the impact of “friend-shoring, and a general decrease in the diversification of trade partners. For more on friend-shoring, skip to Trend 6.

The update provides a mixed picture across economic sectors. Looking ahead to 2024, the commodities sector faces continued uncertainty due to regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions. Overall, the report paints a complex and challenging landscape for global trade in the coming year.

2. Inflation and the global economy

The global economy remains fragile and uncertain, revealing and worsening structural weaknesses in an interconnected global system. Again, we need to look to the emerging trend of offshoring, reshoring, and friend-shoring, creating an overall realignment of global trade between rival blocs. This is expected to reshape supply chains, necessitating adjustments in company relationships and giving rise to new competition.

One of the central challenges facing the global economy in 2024 is of course inflation, with projections indicating a global inflation rate of 5.8%, and core inflation not expected to return to target levels of around 2% until 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, variations in inflation rates are anticipated across countries and regions based on economic conditions, policy responses, and external shocks.

While the United States experiences relatively low inflation rates, the global average masks substantial differences among countries and regions. Advanced economies are projected to see inflation below 3.0% in 2024 after averaging 4.6% in 2023. In Canada, inflation is expected to continue to decline, staying between 2% and 3%, stabilizing at 2% toward the end of 2024, according to the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC). Notably, the economic landscape includes a weak Eurozone and a particularly challenged United Kingdom.

Altogether, the realignment of global trade relationships and ongoing inflation challenges are expected to have a significant impact on supply chains, corporate relationships, and competitive dynamics in the coming year and beyond.

3. Cybersecurity risks continue to rise

2023 was a big year for cybersecurity, during which we saw the biggest ever denial of service (DDoS) attack and an increase in cyber attacks with big impacts such as the cyber attack that forced the FAA to ground all flights due to issues with a critical system.

The WEF listed “Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity” as the 8^th biggest risk in its Global Risks Report 2023.

Forbes lists 12 predictions for cybersecurity in 2024:

1. Rise In Ransomware Attacks
2. Increased AI-Powered Attacks
3. Flipside: AI As A Cybersecurity Tool
4. IoT Vulnerabilities
5. Electric Vehicle Hack Apocalypse
6. Quantum Computing Threats
7. Data Velocity And Hybrid Infrastructures
8. Need For DevSecOps
9. More Zero Trust Adoption
10. Stricter Data Privacy Regulations
11. Additional Supply Chain Attacks
12. Biometric Authentication Challenges

Ramping up cybersecurity action plans and closely monitoring the latest emerging threats will top many companies’ agendas for 2024.

4. Policy impact after COP28’s first ever “Trade Day”

At the COP28 climate summit in October, global leaders marked the first “Trade Day” as part of the UN’s annual climate conference, underscoring the crucial role of trade in combating climate change. Trade is seen as a powerful tool in addressing climate change, influencing global carbon emissions as well as facilitating the flow of green goods and services essential for the low-carbon energy transition.

The global production and distribution of goods and services contribute to roughly a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions, according to UNCTAD.

During Trade Day’s launch a roadmap of trade policy options were outlined aiming at an equitable and ambitious response to climate change. Discussions throughout the day centered on leveraging trade policies to decarbonize global supply chains, incentivize businesses toward a net-zero future, secure value chains related to the energy transition, and integrate environmentally responsible practices into trade finance.

Emphasis was made on the need for a multi-lateral approach to creating climate and environment regulations so that small businesses and vulnerable countries aren’t entangled in a complex web of rules.

How this multilateral approach to more equitable and environmentally friendly trade policy will come together remains to be seen, and we will be watching for updates throughout 2024.

5. Trade-restrictive measures on the rise

Returning to UNCTAD’s The Global Trade Update, the report highlights a notable rise in trade-restrictive measures in 2023, particularly non-tariff measures (NTMs). This has been attributed to an increase in industrial policies and added pressure for countries to fulfill their climate commitments. As a result, nations are adopting policies that favor domestic industries and aim to decrease dependence on foreign supply chains.

A recent report from UNCTAD, titled “Trade regulations for climate action,” identified 2,366 NTMs related to climate change, impacting 3.5% of potentially tradable goods and representing 26.4% of global trade. For better or worse, UNCTAD has predicted that these policies are likely to reduce the growth of international trade in the year ahead.

6. Friend-shoring planning in 2022 and 2023 is coming to fruition in 2024

The continue swing toward “friend-shoring” for geopolitical closeness and overall risk reduction has led manufacturers to invest billions in building factories that are either closer to the end consumers or in less risky regions.

This trend continues after years of supply chain upheavals caused by a litany of weather, geopolitical and Covid-10 disruptions. The transportation sector is responding by increasing capacity in regions such as cross-border connections between Canada,U.S. and Mexico connecting to Latin America.

“During 2022, 14% of all U.S. imports by value originated in Mexico, according to data analyzed by Supply Chain Dive. Similarly, U.S. firms have long been financially active in the country, and are responsible for 42% of the total foreign direct investment in Mexico since 2006,” according to SupplyChainDive

There has been a general trend of re-organization of shipping routes enacted over the last couple of years that are now starting to operate at full capacity. Logistics companies are racing to fill the demand. Intermodal logistics services out of Mexico have been steadily growing as the CUSMA trade agreement increased demand in the region and became even more attractive within near-shoring and friend-shoring strategies.

UNCTAD also highlights a marked increase in trade concentration. “There has been an overall decrease in the diversification of trade partners, indicating a concentration of global trade within major trade relationships.”

7. Digital trade growth continues, particularly in Africa and Asia Pacific

Digital trade, comprising all digitally ordered or delivered transactions, is reshaping the global economy.

A significant trend in this digital era is the remarkable growth of digitally delivered services, which have nearly quadrupled in value since 2005, passing the growth of goods and other service exports. In 2022, these digitally delivered services made up 54% of total services exports, offering new opportunities for players in the global market, including micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Although developed economies lead in exporting digitally delivered services, developing economies, including those in Africa and Asia Pacific, are increasingly participating in this trend. However, least-developed countries (LDCs) are experiencing slower growth in the export of digitally delivered services.

Governance in digital trade is also growing, and significant progress has been made through bilateral and regional trade agreements. Today most FTAs include digital trade provisions. On top of trade rules, regulations addressing cross-border data flows, consumer protection and issues around competition are being addressed through digital trade policy.

We’ll be watching for developments in the technology, standards and trade policy that come into play in 2024.

8. AI in everything

AI is transforming international trade, along with everything else, at a breakneck pace. This is presenting as many challenges as opportunities to businesses facing cybersecurity risks aided by AI, as well as using AI to find and protect against potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

It’s providing a myriad of supply chain technology solutions to improve processes in managing inventory and production, and automating logistics. It is also being used to ease cross-border regulation by automating form filling, checking for documentation errors, and help with compliance checks.

Financial institutions are using AI to assess financial risk and detect potential fraud. Small businesses are benefiting from productivity gains by using AI to generate trade documents, assist with translation, customers service and much more.

As AI is increasingly coming into play in business and in every day life, we will be watching with a particular eye on how it’s being used in trade functions and international businesses.

9. Supply chain volatility is still a huge factor in 2024

At the time of writing, shipping lines are being diverted from routes through the Suez Canal as attacks on cargo ships have recently escalated. At the same time, drought in the Panama Canal region is causing a major bottleneck and disrupting trade flows as shippers look for alternative routes or face delays.

Supply chain disruption has been the name of the game for several years now, with major challenges in capacity amid labour shortages and fluctuating demand during the Covid lockdowns of 2020-2021, geopolitical conflicts and weather-related delays.

While things have now largely stabilized since the pandemic with less congestion and a more normalized supply-demand, new risks such as cyberattacks, continued geopolitical conflicts, and labour shortages and strikes.

Fortunately, there are several tools and new technologies emerging to assist businesses with better plan and risk mitigation including the use of AI tools, digitization of trade and shipping documents, and increased transparency.

10. Gaining new skills most important in getting hired and promoted in 2024

An Employ Recruiter Nation Report shows that 39% of employers plan to focus on internal mobility in 2024. This indicates HR decision-makers’ awareness that in a competitive job market, hiring highly qualified candidates is challenging, necessitating a focus on retaining existing employees.

To do this, there’s a growing trend for organizations to offer career pathing, reducing employee turnover and enabling them to transition into roles that offer challenges and new learning opportunities. This eases the burden on hiring teams, as businesses seek to acquire new skills rapidly through upskilling and internal mobility.

Providing stipends for certifications, mentorship programs, and career development training will be crucial for leaders to empower employees to enhance their skill sets and advance within the organization. While external talent sourcing remains important, prioritizing internal mobility is set to be a major focus in 2024.

At the same time, emphasis will shift from the prestige of past employers on resumes to the importance of individual skills, which also improves diversity, equity, and inclusion. This shift benefits organizations as it broadens the talent pool. Businesses are expected to concentrate on addressing skills gaps which will help achieve the organization’s long-term strategic goals.

The renewed focus on skills is in both technical and leadership competencies, evident in job postings and internal opportunities. Recruiters will continue to prioritize leadership skills, ensuring that the current short-term focus doesn’t lead to leadership skill gaps in the future.

The post 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2024 appeared first on Trade Ready.

Peter Hall has long been an influential voice in the international business community. He served as VP & Chief Economist at EDC for over a decade. In the FITT Economic Briefing series, Peter explores the current state of the world economy, forecasts and what it all means for today’s exporters.

Here is a recap of the first three installments in the series. For the full picture, watch the videos and be sure to subscribe to FITT’s Youtube channel so that you will be the first to know when there is a new briefing update.

Is forecasting passé? Projections and pandemonium are a strange mix

Released in August, 2023

Chaos is a big theme these days – it appears in books, movies, high-level economic and political discussions, and it has come to permeate our view of things. Whether it’s climate change, technological change, de-globalization, terrorism, populism, pandemics,  demographic change, misinformation, corporate ethical issues, IP, AI or the host of other mega-shifts I’ve left off the list, each individual issue is daunting on its own; collectively, they are something of a nightmare.

The shock, persistence and randomness of these issues has led many to conclude that it’s not really possible to see the future, that the models of the past are broken. That’s probably true if everything has changed. But everything hasn’t changed.

The traditional business cycle is still relevant

We still talk the business cycle and its four phases: growth, peak, recession and recovery. All of these terms are still in our business vocabulary, and still active in reality.

What’s confusing about today’s business cycle is that it doesn’t seem to be following the same cadence as in the past. In recent history, we could count on a recession happening roughly every 10 years. However, dating back to the early 1980s, the world has undergone significant positive shocks that have increased our collective capacity to grow. Things like computing power, telecommunications, the rise of emerging markets, globalization, and myriad related factors and applications have revolutionized and set whole new limits to our growth potential.

It’s really hard to argue that in the big, driver economies there is clear evidence of pre-recession excesses. In fact, there is ample evidence of the exact opposite – a massive anti-bubble of pent-up demand.

If you don’t agree, you’re in good company – but try these arguments on for size: first, the COVID-19 policy-induced recession simply deferred a lot of intended spending. And the money is there for it, from incomes that were just banked to paid-out but unspent stimulus money. Second, prolonged sluggish growth created a huge groundswell of pre-pandemic pent-up spending. Third, at the same time, Americans vastly reduced their personal debt levels. Fourth, the 2008 housing disaster, most evident in the U.S. market, brought chronic underbuilding that created a big supply-demand gap that will take years to fill. In the U.S. and Europe, housing is on the up and up. No wonder the Fed is finding the inflation battle hard.

Canada and the U.S. are facing different scenarios into 2024

Ditto for Canada? Sadly, no. Soaring consumer debt and poor housing fundamentals will not respond well to aggressive interest rate hikes. This, together with higher consumer prices will ensure that Canadian consumers are tighter with their cash. Avoiding a significant domestic recession will be very difficult for Canada to do.

This time around, Canada’s exporters will get a free pass. The relative strength of our key trading partners will likely shift business interest more to an export focus – by extension, heating up demand for international trade expertise.

Not only will exports partly offset the domestic malaise, but that same domestic weakness could well free up labour and plant capacity for the export sector – it’s actually a good moment to keep an eye open for talent that’s currently being shed in the high tech, financial services and skilled-trade firms that primarily serve the internal economy. It’s also a good time to be on the lookout for strategic investment plays.

Here’s the deal

Forecasting is alive and well, if the impact of structural changes is properly understood. Data and cyclical fundamentals together show that the global economy is stronger than news reports have indicated. This will help it to absorb higher interest rates without drastic fallout, and to continue growing for a number of years to come. To do this successfully, more capacity will be needed to deal with rising demand. That will be good for Canadian exports, Canadian business investment, and skilled international trade professionals.

Is Inflation Going the Wrong Way? Analysts say more rate hikes ahead

Released in September, 2023

As you know, businesses, exporters and consumers have already paid a huge price in the Bank of Canada’s inflation fight. The sharply higher cost of borrowing has hit us from all angles – personally, in business investment projects and working capital needs, and in business flows.

Haven’t rate hikes gone far enough? Why aren’t they more effective? What about core inflation?

That’s all the Bank of Canada cares about, right? Partly right – in an inflation fight, they’re looking at everything.

What wasn’t discussed in immediate news flashes over the past few months is that certain key groups in the CPI basket are either deflating or in disinflation territory. Take household operations, furnishing and equipment, for instance. It’s a category that accounts for almost 15% of the CPI basket, and has fallen by an average of 0.5% per month for the past three months. That’s an annualized drop of 5.9%, a pretty serious tumble. Guess what – this category isn’t alone. Clothing and footwear tumbled by 2.8% in the past two months alone. Meanwhile, health care costs have flatlined. Add it up, and about a quarter of the basket is really hard-hit.

Still a lot of interest costs pain ahead

This sure complicates the budgeting process. Businesses are struggling with irrepressible energy and transportation costs, critical for international trade, and a softening domestic market that’s putting downward pressure on selling prices. Weak producer prices are a mixed blessing; input costs are muted, but those selling intermediate goods are in a squeeze.

Monthly increases in mortgage interest costs are still rising at a double-digit pace that has persisted for 14 months, and is almost sure to continue for some months to come. In July alone, growth was at a 24% annualized pace. The pace was actually higher a few months back, but today’s growth is on top of previous gains and is almost sure to barrel on in the coming months. For interest costs, there’s still a lot of pain ahead.

Is the cure worse than the disease?

Now wait a minute; when we’re talking about inflation from interest rate hikes, isn’t that inflation that’s sort of caused by the Bank of Canada? Well, I’m afraid so.

This is one of those strange situations where fighting fire with fire is the remedy. But if that’s the case, shouldn’t the measure of success be the price path of everything but mortgage interest costs? That is, are the fires that are being intentionally started helping us conquer the original fire? Seems reasonable.

That should be easy; mortgage costs are hefty, so tackling what remains should be easy, right? Not quite; hard as it may be to swallow, the weight of mortgage interest costs in the the entire 2022 CPI basket was just 3.46%. But don’t despair; multiply that by the 30.6% year-on-year growth in this category and you add a full percentage point to headline CPI!

Here’s the deal

Monetary policy remains a delicate dance. Rate hikes to date will still be biting down hard on the economy well into next year. Spurious and fleeting price changes will doubtless complicate the exercise, but the Bank’s potion seems to be working. As we’ve seen in the past, too much is lethal.

Navigating Near-shoring: Tempering enthusiasm with caution

Released in November, 2023

It seems everywhere there’s business-talk, near-shoring is one of the key topics. Whether in keynote presentations, strategy meetings or side-bar conversations, there’s lots of buzz.

While serious talk of near-shoring is nothing new, springing to life with SARS-1, business-arresting weather and seismic events and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, it really took the COVID-19 pandemic to kick it into tangible action. In investment-speak, that’s pretty recent.

It takes time to actually get shovels in the ground, but that seems to be happening in spades in 2023.

What does this mean for exporting businesses in Canada?

Many are welcoming this enthusiastically. They see new investments coming in, with employment opportunities, ribbon-cutting ceremonies and of course tax dollars to follow. And if they’re not coming here, well, they’re setting up shop in a ‘friendlier’ location. Supply chains are more secure. Shipping will be more predictable, and require shorter lead times. In short, it’s much more about us, and it’s keeping the so-called ‘bad guys’ out. But is it all positive?

6 key near-shoring challenges for exporters

Unfortunately, there are a good few things to watch out for:

1. Higher costs

Let’s face it, under globalization, business was organized internationally to minimize costs. Competitive pressures ensured that businesses would make cost-efficient decisions. It’s logical, then, that unwinding this process will result in higher-cost production. The timing isn’t great, as we are already dealing with the first serious inflation outbreak in 31 years. Exporting businesses will have to factor this into their plans, and will have to be creative to remain competitive.

2. Labour shortage

New domestic investments will require workers, and these – at least in Canada, the U.S. and Western Europe are in short supply. As such, these new operations will likely bid up the cost of labour, which no doubt will seep into our own organizations, magnifying wage pressures that are already present.

Canada’s acute shortage of skilled labour also suggests that new investments may well poach skilled labour from existing operations, compromising production from existing facilities, and again, adding to wage pressures for skilled workers.

3. Financing

The timing of new investment activity isn’t great, as it’s clashing with the recent spike in interest rates. While we may welcome all of this new activity, the cost of what it produces will likely have to factor in increased borrowing costs.

4. Location

You may be happy that a key part of your supply chain is moving closer, say from China to Mexico. If you haven’t dealt with Mexico-based businesses before, there’s likely a lot to learn about transactional, taxation and logistics issues, among other things. And even if you are familiar with the new market, there may well be differences that relate to the nature of the goods and/or services in question.

5. Are potential partners really near?

Near-shoring has created a wave of investments from offshore suppliers, in an attempt to be treated as local content. China is particularly active, with anecdotal evidence suggesting strongly that it is investing in North America, especially Mexico, and in places like South Korea which have preferential trade agreements with the U.S.

This new investment is generally being welcomed by the recipient jurisdictions, but if in U.S. policymakers’ eyes this is ultimately viewed as a violation of the spirit of near-shoring, then these investments – and those supplied by them – may well find themselves on the wrong side of Canada’s top customer. With this in mind, remember that USMCA is up for renewal in 2026.

6. Politics vs business

Businesses make investment decisions based on long-term dynamics, given the amounts being committed and the need to generate shareholder value. Politics is often on a shorter horizon, and can be fickle. When it finally dawns on consumers that they will ultimately pay the bill for this, in addition to current inflation pressures and higher interest rates, they may sour on near-shoring.

At the same time, businesses need to be aware that higher-cost repatriated investment means that there are still lower-cost operations elsewhere that could well threaten future competitiveness. They, too, may lose enthusiasm for near-shoring. Best to keep an open mind and remain flexible.

Here’s the deal

Past promises to re-shore, near-shore or re-localize supply chains weren’t honoured for a reason. Businesses simply weren’t convinced that the long-run costs of disruption justified a substantial re-working of their global production networks. Political pressure and security concerns have convinced many that it’s time to make good on the promises.

Whether or not the changes stick remains to be seen. Where national security is concerned, near-shoring is here to stay. For the rest, time alone will tell. As near-shoring is essentially a policy in flux, it is critical to keep an eye on the progression of the issue in the coming months.

Don’t miss a FITT Economic Briefing update. Subscribe to FITT’s Youtube Channel and turn on notifications.

The post Forecasting, inflation and near-shoring – what exporters need to know heading into 2024 appeared first on Trade Ready.