To qualify for preferential duties, exporters must meet ROO rules, but these are complex – and strict compliance is essential to avoid costly customs audits. In this article, we outline what companies need to understand about rules of origin – and highlight the key points exporters must manage to avoid failing an audit.

What rules of origin actually do

Rules of origin are fundamental to international trade because they gatekeep access to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). ROOs determine the economic nationality of a product, i.e., where a good is truly considered “from” for tariff purposes.

Rules of origin are the laws, regulations and administrative guidelines that governments use to determine an imported product’s country of origin, not always an easy matter when the raw materials, manufacturing, processing or assembly of a product can be provided in several different countries.

For example, simply shipping a product from, say, Canada to the EU, does not automatically grant it preferential treatment under the Canada European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

If the product uses inputs from outside the FTA zone, it must undergo substantial transformation in the exporting country to be deemed “originating” in that country.

Exporters must meet the strict, product-specific criteria laid out in each FTA, in order for the product to qualify as “originating” and become eligible for reduced or zero tariffs.

Two main types of rules of origin

Rules of origin are generally categorized into two distinct types, each serving a different purpose in international trade: preferential and non-preferential.

Preferential ROO

These are the rules that matter most to exporters seeking a competitive edge. Preferential ROO are applied exclusively within the framework of FTAs, such as USMCA (formerly NAFTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), or the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Meeting these rules is how a product qualifies as “originating” under the terms of the agreement, which in turn grants it preferential tariff treatment. In practice, it means that importers pay either a reduced or a zero-duty rate.

Non-Preferential ROO

Non-preferential ROO determine a product’s origin for general commercial purposes and are applied unilaterally by a country (or by multilateral organizations like the WTO) in cases where no FTA benefits are being claimed.

These rules do not usually grant any special tariff advantages, but countries still impose these rules for various administrative and trade remedy reasons, for example:

• Trade statistics: Accurate recording of import and export data.
• Country-of-origin labelling: Determining the “Made In…” label required on goods.
• Trade remedies: Applying specific measures like anti-dumping or countervailing duties against goods determined to originate from a specific country.
• Government procurement: Determining the eligibility of a product for public tenders.

While both rule types are legally required, for the specific goal of maximizing profit and offering cost savings to your buyers through lower import duties, preferential ROO are the primary focus for any company using an FTA.

How to figure out the rule for your product

Determining origin starts with classification. Every product in global trade is assigned a specific harmonized system (HS) code by the World Customs Organization (WCO).

The World Customs Organization says that,

“At the heart of international trade, the harmonized system is an essential tool for harmonizing and facilitating the movement of goods around the globe.”

The HS code is the anchor for all trade rules. Once you have the correct HS codes for your exported product, you can look it up in the relevant FTAs’ annex or schedule, which will detail the product-specific rule (PSR) you need to meet. These rules fall roughly into four categories:

Wholly Obtained (WO)

This is the most straightforward rule. Here, goods must be entirely sourced or produced within the territory of one FTA member country. None of the materials used to produce the goods can be non-originating. Wholly obtained goods automatically qualify as originating.

Clear examples include minerals extracted from the ground, live animals born and raised, or fish caught by vessels registered and flagged to that country.

Change in Tariff Classification (CTC)

CTC rules are the most common method for manufactured goods that use imported components. The core principle is that non-originating inputs must undergo sufficient production or processing within the exporting country.

In other words, the finished product is classified under a different HS code than the inputs. There is a minimum shift in classification required for this rule to apply. Depending on the rule, the required “shift” can be at a high level – implying a change in the applicable chapter of the HS code.

Some rules allow more granular changes in how to find HS code, for example, a change in subheading. It depends on the specifics of the free trade agreement.

Regional Value Content (RVC)

The RVC rule dictates that a certain minimum percentage of the final product’s value must originate from within the FTA region.

According to Export Development Canada,

“The imported components must undergo significant transformation during manufacturing to be considered as originating from the trade agreement countries.”

This rule is often used for products where a tariff shift alone is not considered a sufficient transformation. Think about really complex assemblies, such as a car or industrial machinery.

The FTA will specify the calculation method to be used, but the common ones are the transaction value method, which looks at the selling price of the product, and the net cost method, excluding costs such as marketing and royalties.

Specific Process Rules

For a limited set of international business contracts, origin is determined by requiring the completion of a specific, non-tariff-based manufacturing or chemical process.

This rule is often applied to industries like textiles, chemicals, and refined metals (steel), where the process itself is the measure of substantial transformation, regardless of the resulting HS code.

Key points exporters must manage

ROO compliance requires diligence across multiple parts of your supply chain and record-keeping system, including:

• HS code accuracy: Incorrect classification is the most common and costly mistake, as using the wrong HS code immediately leads to an inaccurate ROO determination. This can result in your buyer being denied the preferential tariff.
• Understanding the applicable rule: Different FTAs have different rules, so a product that qualifies as originating under CETA may not qualify under USMCA due to varying RVC thresholds or CTC requirements.
• Tracking inputs: For any product not wholly obtained, you must trace the origin and processing of your components. That includes where inputs are from, the relative value of each input, and its transformation status.
• Maintaining documentation: Exporters are required to keep records to back up every origin declaration, including bill of materials and supplier declarations. Cost breakdowns and production records are also critical.
• Issuing the certificate of origin: The required format depends on the FTA and can vary from self-certification (USMCA, CPTPP, and CETA) to government-authorized certificates, particularly in the case of older regional agreements.
• Importer responsibilities: The importer is the party legally responsible for claiming the preferential tariff rate and ultimately liable for any inaccuracies. Importers must retain the origin documentation provided by the exporter.

Note that under certain FTAs (like RCEP), the importer is permitted to issue the origin declaration themselves, placing the compliance burden directly on them.

Common pitfalls

Navigating rules of origin is complex, with even experienced exporters making mistakes. Common pitfalls include:

• Assuming “Made In X” means “Originating in X”: The country where a product is made is not the same as its origin according to trade rules. Something can be made in one country, but fail to qualify as originating in that country according to an FTA.
• Trusting supplier classifications: Exporters often assume the materials provided by their suppliers meet the origin criteria – but should instead verify via a formal supplier declaration or certification.
• Ignoring the De Minimis rule: The de minimis rule is a tolerance that allows a small percentage of non-originating inputs to be used without affecting the origin status, provided the product otherwise meets its ROO.
• Origin when suppliers change: A change in your supply chain, even switching suppliers within the same country, can alter the origin status of your materials.

It’s also worth noting that when a regional value content rule applies, errors in calculation, including the wrong valuation method or non-allowable costs, can invalidate the entire origin claim.

ROO knowledge is core to the correct trade declaration

Ultimately, understanding and mastering the rules of origin is just non-negotiable. Strict compliance ensures your product is correctly documented, which protects your company during customs audits.

Achieving assured originating status directly translates to financial benefits by allowing your product to access lower tariffs (often zero duties) under FTAs, which immediately helps with competitive pricing in new markets.

It’s a win-win, but the rules are complex. Close adherence is an absolute must.

The post Rules of Origin: What You Need to Know appeared first on Trade Ready.

You might have been hearing for some time about the business opportunities in growing Asia-Pacific markets. And with the signing of the CPTPP, bringing together one of the largest trade blocs in the world and representing over 500 million people, lowered barriers to entry in these regions are certainly enticing to businesses looking for new global markets.

In fact, Asian regions (China, Japan and South Korea) already make up three out of the top six export destinations for Canadian goods. So how can you take advantage of these opportunities?

Here are five valuable tips from those who have been there, done that, and have found success entering Asian markets.

1. Invest in the best sales leadership and develop the rest

With more than two decades of experience in the ASEAN region, marketing and business development consultant Peter Gray urges businesses to consider investing in quality talent.

The Asia-Pacific region is intensely competitive. The market contains many multinationals as well as intra-regional rivals, all competing at varying levels of quality and price-points. Moreover, customer buying behaviors and value perceptions differ significantly throughout the region.

Sales is the front-line face of your company and vitally important to gaining distribution and customer trust and confidence.

In this context, an elite salesforce needs to become your competitive advantage. Developing one starts with investing in regionally experienced and commercially competent leadership capable of recruiting, coaching and developing the skills and effectiveness of your direct and distribution salespeople. Furthermore, to truly differentiate and rise above your competitors, you must establish a structured, effective, start-to-finish selling process based on set milestones with supporting CRM and sales enablement technology.

Whatever methodology, process and CRM platform you choose, developing your salespeople is essential. Companies selling in the ASEAN region should avoid a few common misconceptions of recruiting salespeople:

• Recruiting product experts as salespeople does not generate product enthusiasm or win customers. It’s better to hire, train, coach and develop talented salespeople.
• Poaching salespeople from competitors will not convert customers, as top customers are loyal to brands and local distributors. You may convert a few small scale customers but you need to focus on the biggest and best selling opportunities and these prospects need a compelling reason and material gain to change.
• Recruiting sales managers and designating them as sales directors does not give you access to more high-quality customers, or improve a manager’s selling skills. It’s better to train your salespeople and promote them once their skills meet the level required by the position.

2. Never be afraid to keep your options open in negotiations

Global business advisor and author Siddha Param has led clients to success in Asian regions. He uses the following case to illustrate the different factors a North American cereal company identified when negotiating with two Asian businesses in two different countries.

A prospective supermarket chain was willing to purchase cereal products from the cereal company at the agreed price. An issue arose, however, when the supermarket chain asked for credit terms of payment in 90 days instead of 60 days as stated in the cereal company’s “Standard Terms of Contract”.

The supermarket chain had a reputation of making prompt payment on terms it agrees to. Furthermore, they had the ability to purchase an estimated 65% of the cereal company’s production capacity for the Asian market, so they felt their position gave them the necessary leverage to make this request.

The cereal company then had to weigh its negotiating options. Even though the supermarket chain insisted on a 90 day credit period, the local political, economic and social conditions would enable the supermarket chain to get a bank guarantee for payments.

An option for the cereal company was to sell at a higher price to accommodate for the expected delay in payment or to bare the loss from delay in payment as a result of agreeing to extend the payment period to 90 days.

Their alternative was to sell to a distributor in a neighbouring country that agreed to the price and 60 days payment term. However, there were greater political, economic and social uncertainties in this neighbouring country, which resulted in market and currency fluctuations.

Additionally, the distributor was not able to provide a bank guarantee for payments, but the owner of the distributor had a reputation with other North American companies of being true to his word with payments made as agreed.

By simultaneously negotiating with the supermarket chain and the distributor, the cereal company was able to assess the walk-away position with both parties. Having an alternative enabled the negotiator to achieve the best terms possible in negotiations with both parties.

3. Analyzing, understanding and targeting addressable market segments and customer categories is crucial to product and price positioning

Peter Gray also stresses the importance of identifying and targeting the right consumers based on their buying habits and values.

Most ASEAN markets have three-tier customer categories:

• Premium buyers – Discerning buyers who accept only top-tier brands, offering the highest quality in products with the most features, along with priority services. They are willing to pay the highest level price premium, for example Emirates Airlines first class travel.
• Value-added buyers – Buyers who expect high quality products and services that meet specific needs. They normally accept products with less features and are willing to pay a price premium based on relevant perceived value, for example business class or economy-plus air travel.
• Price buyers – Buyers who seek products that are of adequate quality at the best possible price, and have less concern about quality, service levels and consistency, for example economy-class or budget airlines no frills trav

The best growth and profit opportunity may be to offer existing products or customize and differentiate products or services in the value-added buyer category. Customers in the price-buyer category are burrowing up because of globalization and better choices being made available. Conversely, customers in the premium-buyer category are beginning to seek alternatives that still meet overall needs but offer less features at a lower price-point.

Companies entering ASEAN markets must align features that matter with customers that matter.

With respect to price positioning, is it about profit percentage or contributing profit dollars? This is a subjective question and depends on the exporting company’s business culture, growth objectives and longer-term ambitions. As an example, is 50% profit on a $2M business more appealing than 41% profit on a $5M business?

It’s about immediately being competitive and quickly gaining market-share while maximizing profitability for both company and channel partners.

4. Research and prepare a tailored approach for each meeting

Sharon Schweitzer has 20+ years of experience training executives at fortune 50 companies to succeed in international markets through an understanding of culture and business practices. She stresses the necessity of customizing your approach not only to each region, but each individual situation to nail those meetings.

Custom-tailor your approach just like a Hong Kong tailor does for a silk suit or dress.

They understand how to fit their clothing for a particular person, and you need to do the same for each unique situation.

Avoid imposing personal customs, habits, and business etiquette from your passport country into international business meetings and deals. By doing a little research and preparation, you’ll fit in more easily and find your business dealings go more smoothly.

Consider these 3 tips to prepare for business meetings abroad:

1. Rethink time

Plan to arrive early and stay late. Understand that ‘time-conscious’ Western economies think of time as a limited and cost-related commodity. Western businesses also tend to be more short-term focused than those in the East, for whom quarterly earnings are less a measure of success. Remember, these are cultures whose history is measured in millennia rather than centuries! Allow plenty of time for discussion, dinner and drinks.

2. Formality shows self-control and self-respect

Body language is as important as the words you speak in Asia – sometimes more so. Remain calm and formal to demonstrate self-control and that you’re worthy of their respect. It is considered improper etiquette to place hands or fingers on yours or anyone else’s head, face or mouth.

3. Have patience

Constant distractions in many Asian workplaces, including cell phones ringing frequently and animated conversations elsewhere in the building, may cause you to feel distracted. Remember that other cultures have different ways of working. In Asia, businesspeople are very comfortable with constant interruptions and dispensing with agendas in service of important relationships.

5. Build your presence in the market

Anna Biolik, a leading global business advisor and former ambassador, has over three decades of international trade policy, diplomacy and intercultural effectiveness. She stresses the importance in taking the time to build relationships and establish an on the ground presence in order to succeed in Asian markets.

To successfully capture the opportunities in Asia, Canadian SMEs need to create foundations for deeper and broader relationships with a given market.

Physical presence and personal contact are viewed as real assets in Asia. Setting up a local office in Asia is the most effective way to conduct business transactions, whether with customers, suppliers or partners. This is also the best way to deal with governmental authorities.

Establishing a long-term presence and making the necessary investments help SMEs prepare for tough times and avoid being left behind. This type of presence is a key factor in dealing with the market volatilities. It is a well-known fact that when China’s economy overheated in the mid-to late 1990s, some of the Western companies started to pull back and only a few anticipated the staying power that was needed to weather the market storms.

China and other Asian markets will no doubt witness new periods of turbulence in the future, as their economies continue to grow. A long-term presence is also a key factor in developing the necessary level of connectivity with Asian markets. There is presently a tendency to rely too much on technology to fulfill the need for communications. However, Asian cultures, diverse as they are, have a particular preference for personal contact to establish trust and good reputation.

Nautel, a Nova-Scotia-based manufacturer of radio broadcast transmitters, became international thanks to its innovative business model using an extensive network of sales partners around the globe. These sales agents, partners or independent contractors – according to Kevin Rodgers, the company’s President and CEO, “are the people on the ground who can interact directly with clients.”

Nautel has been relying on their sales partners’ knowledge of local language, customs and regulations, and proactively leveraging their strengths, connections and knowledge, in order to expand its business beyond Canada’s borders.

Entry into Asia’s national or regional markets requires adequate resources on-the-ground to facilitate the company’s transaction-based commerce and selling via multinational value chains. A lack of in-person presence, investment in local human capital, and long-term commitment to the market, may not be simply sustainable in the Asian context.

The post Top 5 Asia market entry tips straight from the experts appeared first on Trade Ready.

What 2019 global trade trends should you be looking out for? Here’s a preview of what could be dominating the headlines and your work conversations throughout the next 12 months.

1. Will the new USMCA be ratified?

After over two years of anti-NAFTA rhetoric from President Trump and many rounds of negotiations, a replacement deal to govern North American trade, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was finally signed by the leaders of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico on November 30, 2018.

Before coming into effect, however, the deal must be ratified by the legislatures of all three countries. This step could be particularly challenging in the U.S., where a newly elected Democratic Congress may object to some aspects of the deal or simply be unwilling to give Trump a victory on the issue.

While the general sentiment is hopeful for a full ratification in 2019, a significant roadblock in any of the three countries could leave the issue open-ended for at least several more months.

2. Brexit is coming

With a March 29, 2019 date set for the UK to officially leave the EU, Theresa May’s government has little time left to gain domestic support for the Brexit deal she has negotiated. While a December vote was postponed due to a lack of support, May has survived a non-confidence vote and re-scheduled the Brexit vote for the week of January 14.

If a deal is not reached by the March 29 deadline, the UK will face a “hard Brexit” with no guidelines determining significant UK-EU issues like the Irish border, migration, travel, and trade. Despite UK government plans for this contingency, a no-deal Brexit could send the British economy spiralling downward with negative implications for the global economy as well.

3. Is your data safe?

As major corporate data breaches become increasingly common headlines, and the value of data seemingly increasing every day, companies face a conundrum: how can they gather the data they need, but also keep it safe?

Adding extra levels of online security and authentication for customers, as well as changing internal processes to improve passwords, store data more securely and eliminate potential security gaps may all need to be added to your 2019 to-dos to ensure a high level of trust between you and your customers, suppliers and partners.

4. Addressing gender inequality to improve economic opportunities

Despite a growing awareness and focus on the importance of women’s entrepreneurship, studies show that many challenges remain. According to a policy research paper published by the World Bank, the “gender gap in business ownership remains high in many economies around the world”, and “the gap in female entrepreneurship is especially apparent in low-income economies, where women are much less likely than men to start a new business.”

New research from PayPal Canada and Barraza and Associates also indicates that in Canada, “on average, women-owned businesses earn $68,000 less than men who run similar businesses.”

As issues like access to venture capital and corporate procurement opportunities continue to face women-run businesses, one area of success is in e-commerce businesses. 50% of new e-commerce businesses started in the last two years in Canada are run by women, compared to just 34% 10 years ago.

5. AI tools becoming increasingly commonplace

AI has several applications in international trade, from analyzing metrics and economic trends or optimizing warehouse and inventory management to linguistic translation and online sales or chat services, not to mention exporting AI tools themselves.

As technology is refined and these tools are more widely understood, questions regarding data security and IP protection are starting to come to the forefront. But for businesses willing to take the leap, AI has the potential to transform some of their business practices and give them a competitive advantage in their industry.

6. The CPTPP comes into effect – how could it affect you?

As of December 30, 2018, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) comes into effect. This trade deal replaced the TPP after President Trump withdrew the U.S. from that agreement in January 2017 but still includes the other eleven countries from that deal: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

The agreement removes the vast majority of tariffs and other trade barriers, and enforces new standards for human rights and environmental and labour practices.

Will there be a noticeable increase in trade between businesses in these countries? And with opportunity for new countries to join the deal at a later date, could early successes entice any other countries to take steps towards entering the agreement?

7. The fading appeal of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

A year ago, the potential for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies to serve as a transformative tool in global finance seemed high. Bitcoin’s value had never been higher, and increasing numbers of banks and other financial institutions were taking steps into the cryptocurrency arena.

What a difference a year can make.

After a December 2017 high of $20,000, Bitcoin is currently valued around $3,500. Other major cryptocurrencies are also valued at 85-90% below their all-time highs. Public excitement has turned to skepticism in some corners, or concerns about fraud and scams in others.

Even if values increase in 2019, significant changes will be needed to restore trust and support in cryptocurrencies before its wider acceptance in international trade can be re-considered.

8. Accelerated growth of service export industry should continue

Service exports can cover a multitude of areas: international customer service, financial, legal or consulting services, research and development, online services and platforms, and more.

In Euler Hermes’ 2019 forecast, they predict service exports to be the fastest-growing trade economic sector, with an estimated global growth of $365 billion USD, similar to 2018 growth levels.

As service export opportunities continue to grow in the world’s largest economies and emerging economies alike, businesses should look for ways to expand their service offerings through methods like servitization, or service exports directly connected to your existing product exports.

9. Personalizing is key to reach new customers or businesses

With the increasing numbers of ads, emails and content out there competing for attention, more businesses are trying to apply the personal touch in an effort to stand out.

From using increasing amounts of data to target specific ads to personalizing email offers and even web pages around user behaviour and interests, there are more ways than ever to make someone feel like your efforts were created just for them.

On the other side, businesses are increasingly turning back to old practices that had fallen by the wayside. Personal calls, direct mail and printed media like magazines or booklets are returning to the marketing playbook, as what was once cliché is now a novel or unique approach again.

10. Small businesses need employees ready to help grow and expand to new markets

According to a Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) survey, about 40% of small businesses are unable to find the right employees to grow. EDC also noted fewer Canadian businesses are newly exporting or planning to export to new markets in the near future.

To overcome these challenges, small businesses require employees able to research international markets, assess potential risks, create and implement market entry strategies and manage the international logistics, finance, marketing and sales, and other areas.

Looking for practical, flexible training to take your business into new international markets with confidence? Check the full list of EDC-FITT online courses and workshops to see which options work best for you.

We face an eventful year ahead, full of innovation, political risks, and important new opportunities for business growth.

What trends will you be most interested in throughout 2019?

The post 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2019 appeared first on Trade Ready.

Canada’s trade volumes will increase with Chile through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

CPTPP creates trade opportunities for Canada

The benefits of the CPTPP have been overshadowed as of late amidst the USMCA negotiations. The agreement was signed on March 8th, 2018 and is expected to be ratified in the near future. The U.S. is not currently a part of CPTPP, which will create some major trade opportunities for Canada as we compete in similar export markets (EDC, 2018).

Although there has been a lot of attention on Canada and its trade growth potential with Japan, Chile is an important emerging economy which should not be overlooked. Chile ranks number one in South America with an estimated GDP per capita of $24,500, according to the CIA World Factbook. The CPTPP provides a unique investment opportunity for Canadian exporters and entrepreneurs looking to expand in the South American market.

Trade between Canada and Chile

Trade between Canada and Chile is already significant and has steadily increased since 1997, when the Canada-Chile FTA was enacted. According to the Government of Canada, bilateral trade between the two nations in 2017 equated to $2.9 billion. Chile is Canada’s third-largest trading partner in South and Central America. As trade volumes and relationships are already strong with Canada and Chile, the CPTPP will set the stage for future growth.

A desirable prospect of the CPTPP for Canada and Chile is that either country can select a trade agreement of their choice, whichever has more favourable provisions. The CPTPP will also promote better labour and environmental standards, as well as increased labour mobility for higher-skilled professions.

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), the CPTPP will allow Canadian and Chilean companies to invest with greater confidence. According to the Government of Canada, the CPTPP will provide protection from unfair and discriminatory treatment, allowing greater predictability and transparency.

When we consider the factors of endowment, Canada has a comparative advantage with arable land. As a result, our main exports to Chile has been agricultural; fats, oils, and wheat which we can export at a low opportunity cost. Due to the reverse weather seasons (northern vs. southern hemisphere), Canada imports a large number of fruits from Chile, a total of $605 million in 2017 (Government of Canada, 2018).

The Conference Board of Canada suggests that financial, computer and managerial services are three of Canada’s top five growing exports in general. Canada has been a large exporter of commercial services to Chile with a total of $161 million in 2017 (Government of Canada, 2018).

Canada’s top import from Chile are metals and minerals for a total of $922 million (Government of Canada, 2018). Mining is one of the backbones of Chile’s economy, a similar trait to Canada. Stronger trade relations pose an opportunity for Canadian mining companies, such as Toronto-based Barrick Gold, to expand their operations in Chile and the surrounding areas. Canadian mining companies could focus on joint ventures with Chilean companies, reducing costs and increasing project scalability.

Economic trade growth could also lead to increased tourism between Canada and Chile. Air Canada already offers daily direct flights from Toronto to Santiago. Both nations offer many sights for outdoor, wine and ski enthusiasts. The reverse weather seasons and stronger trade relations could help foster increased tourism between the two nations.

CPTPP to foster trade growth with Chile

Canada must acknowledge that the CPTPP will also come with increased competition among the eleven countries that form the multilateral agreement. With increased trade, economies of scale can be established. Comparative advantages would help countries export goods and services which come at a low opportunity cost, ultimately driving down the cost and putting additional pressure on domestic producers.

All indications suggest that the CPTPP will facilitate further trade growth between Canada and Chile. This agreement will allow Canada to better leverage an already strong trading relationship with Chile, an important emerging economy.

The CPTPP will also provide more favourable trading conditions in terms of FDI, labour mobility and protection from unfair and discriminatory treatment. There are unique opportunities for both countries in terms of increased tourism, joint-ventures for mining operations and to establish economies of scale through comparative advantage.

The post How the CPTPP will facilitate further trade growth between Canada and Chile appeared first on Trade Ready.

What should you look out for or expect in the international business world in 2018? Let’s take a look and see what could be dominating the headlines you read over the next twelve months.

1. The CPTPP

Though President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP in January, the remaining 11 countries are working to resurrect the deal as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This deal, if signed, would eliminate approximately 95% of tariffs on trade between these countries, who have a combined GDP of over $10 trillion USD.

In November, Canada surprised the other 10 countries by declining to sign the agreement, to the surprise of the negotiators and the Canadian international trade community. However, amid efforts to diversify exports beyond the American market, it seems unlikely that Canada will continue to drag its heels on an opportunity to gain preferential access to the Japanese market in particular. Expect any final issues to be resolved and the CPTPP to be signed sometime in 2018.

2. Ongoing, contentious Brexit talks

By December 2017, the UK has completed the first phase of Brexit negotiations with the EU, covering issues such as the Irish border, citizens’ rights and financial settlements. The second phase of negotiations will cover the UK’s transition period after formally leaving the EU in March 2019. Discussions over the long-term relationship between the UK and EU will be included in phase three.

This process was complicated on December 13, when several Conservative British MPs joined the opposition to vote for an amendment requiring British Parliament to debate and vote on any final deal with the EU before it can be approved.

The second phase of Brexit negotiations are planned for 2018, and are expected to present few greater challenges than the first phase. The final phase on the long-term relationship between the UK and EU, however, presents several important questions about economic integration and free trade that Britain’s politicians and citizens have not yet agreed upon.

With two sets of challenging negotiations, and the extra hurdle of parliamentary approval, the odds that talks will drag into the final three months before the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019 remain high.

3. Sustainable, cleantech exports

If you’re involved in the clean tech and sustainability sector, 2018 should be a strong year for you. Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, global regulations are still trending towards stricter environmental and emissions regulations, requiring businesses to invest in cleaner technology in order to meet those standards. According to EDC President and CEO Benoit Daignault, total global investment in cleantech has now exceeded $1 trillion and will reach $2.5 trillion by 2020.

Canada in particular is placing great emphasis on this industry. The Canadian government promised $1 billion towards clean tech in its 2017 budget for R&D. The Trade Commissioner Service is also hiring 15 new Trade Commissioners to focus specifically on cleantech.

4. India, Brazil, and New Zealand – the rising stars of global trade

If you’re looking for new markets over the next 12 months, Morgan Stanley recommends you take a hard look at India. They argue the country’s increased digitization, new tax laws and younger demographics present a bright future, and predict 7.5% GDP growth in 2018. Morgan Stanley also predicts that India will be the world’s fastest growing economy over the coming decade.

Brazil will also see a quick recession recovery, growing an expected by 3.1% in 2018, according to the Brazilian government.

If you’re more interested in fully developed markets, Forbes ranked New Zealand second on its 2018 Best Countries for Doing Business rankings, citing its 3.6% economic growth in 2017, among other factors. The country also ranked highly in several categories for ease of doing business, including first in IP rights, bureaucracy/red tape levels surrounding business, and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.

5. Meaningful action to reduce oil dependency

As Venezuela continues to suffer through the collapse of its oil-dependent economy, and the U.S. plans to become a net exporter of oil within 10 years, several oil-dependent economies are taking steps to diversify their economies.

In Russia, Putin’s approval levels are dropping as the economy struggles through lower oil revenues. Despite making fiscal changes to reduce the national budget’s dependence on oil revenues, he may push for new measures to improve his chances in the country’s 2018 presidential elections.

Saudi Arabia has plans to sell about 5% of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, through an IPO in 2018 and expects to generate up to $100 billion for the country’s Vision 2030 program, designed to shift the Saudi economy away from oil dependency towards tech and entertainment services.

Nigeria and Angola, meanwhile, are looking to agriculture to reduce their oil dependency issues. Nigeria, dependent on oil for 70% of government revenues, has launched a new program to increase yam exports to Europe and the U.S., as the country produces 60% of the world’s yams. Angola are instead focused on a broader approach to tap into their agricultural potential, which includes producing more cereals, milk, chicken, cassava, and other products.

6. Banks taking on blockchain

It is practically impossible these days to tune into the business or financial news and not hear a story about the latest blockchain or cryptocurrency development. Blockchain technology, allowing multiple players to have access to a live, unalterable digital ledger, offers game-changing possibilities for international trade finance. In 2018 this buzzworthy fintech is moving beyond Silicon Valley start-ups, into the mainstream world of global financial institutions.

In March, 2017, we reported on how banks were working to bring the advantages of blockchain technology to their corporate clients. In May, the R3 Consortium, made up of of 70 of the world’s biggest financial institutions and created to research and develop blockchain adoption, announced it had secured its largest ever investment. Then in October 2017, seven major banks partnered with R3 and Finastra to develop a blockchain-based marketplace for syndicated loans. On December 6, Amazon joined the blockchain party, announcing a partnership with R3 to allow the Corda platform to be the first distributed ledger technology to operate on the Amazon Web Services Platform.

What will we see in 2018? Swiss global financial company UBS has led an initiative to create a “utility settlement coin” that would represent each major national currency. If this coin is launched, the Corda platform could be adapted to facilitate its use.

IBM is working on launching their own blockchain platform that would allow banks to rapidly clear global payment transactions. There are also several start-ups working on digitizing the bill of lading process.

2018 could be the year some of the blockchain-based payment initiatives move from development to adoption.

7. Adoption of futuristic supply chain technology

Machine learning, automation and robotics, self-driving vehicles, new tracking technology – all of these futuristic supply chain tools will see major developments and implementation in 2018.

The past year was a big one for self-driving vehicles, culminating with the reveal of Tesla’s new fully electric semi, gaining pre-orders from big players such as PepsiCo, UPS and Walmart. Companies invested over $1 billion into self-driving and other trucking technologies in 2017.

Speaking of investing in supply chain technology, over $4 billion was invested in AI by U.S. venture capitalists in the past year. One application that has seen immediate return for companies adopting machine learning capable AI is Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization (MEIO), which has been shown to reduce inventories by 30% while maintaining or improving customer fill rates.

Robots will also continue to play more of a role in warehouses in 2018. While some are increasingly capable of working independently, replacing human workers on the floor, others are working alongside humans, or being controlled by humans using VR applications. There’s no doubt that the demand for the skills needed to work with robotics will continue to rise in the year ahead.

8. Planning for the possibility of a world without NAFTA

The sixth round of NAFTA talks is set to kick off in Montreal January 23. But as the negotiations near, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of positivity. The first five rounds reportedly saw very little progress, putting even more pressure on this next round.

What’s the problem? The U.S. is seemingly immovable on five issues that pose major problems for the agreement’s other two member countries, Canada and Mexico.

The five issues include:

• Removal of reciprocity in government procurement at the sub-national level
• Changes to the rules of origin in the auto sector
• Elimination of the independent dispute resolution clause
• End of Canadian supply management of the dairy, eggs and poultry industries
• Addition of a “sunset clause” on NAFTA itself

“NAFTA, by itself, will not collapse,” said Mexico’s Economy Minister ldefonso Guajardo in October, but even if Mr. Guajardo is right, it may change drastically from what we have in place today.

If this really does spell the end of NAFTA, the Canadian auto, pulp and paper, chemicals, mining, aerospace and oil and gas industries are likely to be most affected, according to BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

Even without NAFTA, trade between the three nations is inevitable. Supply chains between Canada and Mexico criss-cross the U.S. How businesses adapt to the realities of a new – or non-existent – NAFTA, is something we’ll be watching closely in 2018.

9. Cyber threats and IP risks

As technology gets more sophisticated and ingrained in our work and personal lives, so too does the threat of cyber security breaches, which in turn compromises our intellectual property. Sixty-four percent of companies surveyed reported some experience of web-based attacks in the past year. Companies of all sizes are targeted and face the risk of cyber threats from simply being connected to the internet. And the costs are large – the average cost of a data breach in Canada is a jaw-dropping $6.03M.

So what types of threats are growing in 2018? Phishing, social engineering attacks, malicious code, botnets, denial of service attacks and ransomeware are all on the rise.

Ransomware in particular is growing in frequency, attacks rose an alarming 50% in 2016. Demonstrative of the damage a ransomeware attack can cause was the aftermath of the WannaCry attack in May 2017. Hundreds of thousands of individuals lost access to their data, compromising intellectual property, private customer information, and disrupting commercial processes.

As a business, it has never been more crucial to include cybersecurity programs directly in your strategy, and engage IT professionals to help cover all aspects of your web-based properties.

10. Demand for global trade skills higher than ever

Despite continuing turmoil and uncertainty on the global political stage, Canadian businesses still hold an optimistic outlook about their export opportunities. According to Export Development Canada’s Fall 2017 Survey, the majority of respondents believe that export sales will increase in 2018, citing new opportunities, growing demand, and expansion into new markets as stimulating factors.

As more businesses of all sizes get involved in international markets, the demand for talent skilled in global trade processes, is also growing.

“We hear from exporters all the time that knowledge is one of the most important tools for building international success,” said EDC Senior VP, Business Development Mairead Lavery.

In 2017, the FITTskills international trade training program underwent a major update, including the addition of 60% new content to reflect the changes we’ve seen in technology, ecommerce, trade agreements and more. In October, FITT also partnered with EDC to expand access to the available resources for businesses of all sizes looking to take advantage of international opportunities.

There’s no doubt that we all face an exciting year ahead, full of innovation, an ever-shifting global political environment, and risks, alongside ample new opportunities for business growth.

What trends will you be watching in 2018?

The post 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018 appeared first on Trade Ready.