2026 is shaping up to be yet another game-changing year for global trade. With new technologies like AI shaking up manufacturing, digital currencies speeding up payments, and sustainability taking center stage, businesses are facing both exciting opportunities and real challenges.
Add in shifting geopolitics, rising demand from emerging markets, and the need for stronger, more secure supply chains, and it’s clear that agility and foresight are more important than ever.
In our annual look ahead, we break down the top 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching, reacting to, and writing about in 2026.
Read on for our 10 2026 trends.
Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2025 had in store.
1. Global trade hits record high in 2025 but faces slower growth in 2026
Global trade reached a record US$35 trillion in 2025, demonstrating strong resilience despite rising geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and increasing trade barriers. According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), trade expanded by about 7% year over year, driven by higher volumes in both goods and services, with particularly strong contributions from East Asia, Africa, and South–South trade.
However, UNCTAD warns that momentum is slowing and expects weaker trade growth in 2026 as economic uncertainty, higher trade costs, and fragmentation weigh on global flows.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) echoes this outlook. Global merchandise trade grew faster than expected in early 2025 as firms front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and demand for AI-related products surged, especially in Asia and North America.
As a result, the WTO revised its 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast upward to 2.4%, while sharply lowering its 2026 forecast to just 0.5%, reflecting a cooling global economy and the full-year impact of higher tariffs.
Trade in commercial services remains more resilient but is also slowing. The WTO expects services export growth to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and 4.4% in 2026, as weaker goods trade and slower output growth spill over into services.
Together, the UNCTAD and WTO assessments point to a global trade environment that is structurally strong but increasingly constrained, supported in the short term by technology investment and resilient demand, yet facing slower growth ahead as protectionism, economic cooling, and fragmentation reshape global trade dynamics.
2. Sustainable & carbon-sensitive trade
Policies (Electricity Demand & AI)
As electrification and digitalization accelerate, trade policies are increasingly aligning with climate and energy goals to support clean energy infrastructure and carbon-sensitive trade.
Global power demand is surging—driven in part by data centers and AI workloads—forcing energy systems to evolve and integrate more renewables.
Policies are beginning to incentivize renewable electricity generation, grid modernization, and clean technology exports to manage this growth sustainably while maintaining climate objectives.
Trade in renewable energy technologies (e.g., solar, wind, electrolyzers) is expanding rapidly, reshaping energy markets from fossil-fuel dominance toward clean trade flows that include grid equipment and storage systems. Export of these technologies supports carbon-sensitive value chains and opens new trading corridors as countries compete to lead in clean tech deployment. News Release Archive
At the policy level, many countries are implementing clean electricity investment tax credits, carbon pricing, and regulatory frameworks to encourage grid upgrades and clean power trade. For example, Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Strategy aims to boost clean energy and critical mineral supply chains globally, enhancing trade competitiveness while cutting emissions. Canada
Supply chain management
In 2026, sustainable supply chain management is becoming central to reducing climate impacts across international trade. Trade agreements and sustainability initiatives are increasingly tying environmental performance to supply chain practices, encouraging cleaner logistics, emissions tracking, and resilient value chains.
A recent OECD working paper emphasizes that trade policy can foster environmentally sustainable supply chains by integrating sustainability standards and climate objectives into trade agreements and corporate practices.
AI and advanced analytics are playing a transformative role by enabling companies to monitor emissions, optimize logistics for lower carbon output, and enhance transparency across multi-tier networks, helping firms make data-driven decisions that reduce carbon footprints while improving efficiency.
These developments reflect a shift from cost-only supply chain metrics toward carbon and environmental risk evaluation, with sustainability strategies embedded into procurement, production, and logistics planning.
Stronger collaboration among trading partners on carbon disclosure and low-emission practices would build resilience while aligning commercial incentives with net-zero goals.
3. Rise of emerging market demand
Emerging markets, particularly those in Southeast Asia and Africa, are becoming increasingly important demand centers in global trade. Countries in the ASEAN region, including Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand, are expanding their imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery, driven by robust industrial expansion and stronger trade partnerships.
Africa’s major economies like Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Tanzania, South Africa, and Ghana are also growing their imports of food products, engineering goods, consumer goods, and medicines as rising populations and urbanization boost domestic consumption.
This shift is widening export opportunities for suppliers outside traditional Western markets and encouraging exporters to diversify into high‑growth developing regions where demand is rising faster than in advanced economies.
4. Competition & customer service shortening delivery times
In 2026, last‑mile delivery remains one of the most complex and important parts of the supply chain, shaped by evolving consumer expectations and ongoing market challenges. Logistics providers will need to address three key areas to stay competitive:
Big and bulky items: Demand for doorstep delivery of oversized goods like furniture and appliances is growing, but many carriers avoid these due to complexity. Specialized networks can turn this into a strategic advantage.
Reliability over speed: A shift in customer priorities shows that most shoppers (about 90%) prefer reliable delivery within 2–3 days rather than ultra‑fast service, highlighting the importance of consistent performance.
Transparent options: Providing clear estimated delivery dates at checkout and flexible delivery choices reduces cart abandonment and improves customer satisfaction.
Overall, successful last‑mile strategies in 2026 will combine specialized services, reliable performance, and delivery transparency to meet shifting consumer needs.
5. Scenario planning a strategic necessity for international businesses
In 2026, international businesses face geopolitical fragmentation, rapid technological change (especially AI), economic volatility, and rising sustainability and regulatory demands.
Scenario planning moves beyond traditional forecasting by exploring multiple plausible futures, helping companies build resilience and agility in global operations.
It uses “digital twins” to simulate different outcomes. Such a tool becomes critical in an unpredictable market. Any situation, even truly disastrous, can be simulated, tested, and solved virtually. So, the company gets a clear action plan before issues happen.
Key drivers include shifting trade alliances and tariffs, accelerating AI and automation with new cybersecurity and workforce implications, fluctuating interest and exchange rates, and increasingly complex ESG and data regulations. Supply chains remain vulnerable to natural disasters, conflicts, and strikes, highlighting the need for diversification and visibility.
Common scenarios that are run through scenario planning technology: Multipolar Patchwork (fragmented global blocs), Global Managed Trade (negotiated flows with policy shifts), and Localization/Self-Sufficiency (nearshoring to reduce geopolitical risk).
6. Shortening supply chains & localized manufacturing
Many companies are working to shorten cross-border supply chains and bring manufacturing closer to end consumers, whether on a national level or within regional trade blocks. For instance, many energy companies are acquiring manufacturing assets in, or shifting production to the Middle East to service regional customers, regardless of where the business is headquartered.
Additionally, there is a desire among multinational companies to develop close relationships and bring local partners into overseas markets where they might historically have sought to grow organically.
That is in part a recognition of a broader desire among customers to work with local counterparts and it often results in joint venture transactions that can bring local operational knowledge.
7. Services trade outpacing merchandise
The World Trade Organization (WTO) and other forecasting bodies indicate a steady, albeit slightly decelerated, growth for services trade in 2026. This contrasts with a significant slowdown projected for merchandise (goods) trade due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased tariffs.
Key global trends and factors include:
- Steady Growth: Services are expected to continue outpacing goods trade growth in 2026.
- Service exports a large proportion of Canadian trade growth: Between 2014 and 2024, Canadian service exports more than doubled to $232 B, now representing 23% of total exports and over 7% of GDP, accounting for 62% of the country’s real export growth while goods exports remain largely flat.
- Key Drivers: Growth is particularly strong in digital and business services. The demand for AI-related goods and services is also a significant driver.
- Headwinds: The overall global economic environment remains challenging, with trade disputes, high operating costs, and rising business insolvencies creating uncertainty.
8. Digital currencies transforming cross-border payments
Digital currencies issued or regulated by governments—such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins—are becoming a faster, cheaper way to move money across borders.
Today’s global trade payments still rely on slow, complex banking networks that add delays and fees.
CBDCs and regulated stablecoins offer a modern alternative, allowing funds to move almost instantly between trading partners while maintaining the stability of traditional currencies.
Unlike cryptocurrencies that fluctuate in value, stablecoins are backed 1:1 by real-world currencies, making them suitable for everyday trade, treasury, and settlement payments. Their digital design also enables automated payments tied to delivery or contract milestones.
For businesses, the benefits include quicker settlement, lower costs, and greater transparency. Studies show many companies are already achieving double-digit cost savings, and financial institutions expect digital currencies to handle a meaningful share of global payments by 2030.
As regulators in major economies advance real-world adoption, the biggest opportunities will be for platforms that support digital-currency payments seamlessly across international trade.
9. AI becomes the defining competitive advantage for manufacturing in 2026
Deloitte’s 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook highlights that artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key driver of competitiveness as manufacturers respond to lingering challenges from 2025—including rising costs, trade policy uncertainty, and slower growth.
According to the report, many manufacturers plan to increase investment in smart manufacturing technologies such as automation, advanced analytics, cloud platforms, and agentic AI, which can independently make decisions to improve productivity, quality, and capacity.
AI’s role is expanding beyond traditional automation to include functions like identifying alternative suppliers during disruptions, capturing retiring workers’ expertise, and improving customer service processes.
Advanced physical AI, such as autonomous robots and robotic systems, is also set to grow, with adoption expected to more than double within two years.
Manufacturers are increasingly using AI to strengthen supply chain resilience, employing AI-driven analytics to monitor risk, forecast disruptions, and rebalance networks in real time. The technology also supports a shift from reactive to predictive services, boosting equipment uptime and customer satisfaction.
Despite talent shortages, AI itself can help capture workforce knowledge and accelerate training. Deloitte concludes that companies that invest strategically in AI and smart manufacturing will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and widen their competitive advantage in 2026.
10. Growing focus on cybersecurity in supply chains
Heading into 2026, cybersecurity is rising as a core priority in international trade supply chain management, driven by the increasing digitalization of global logistics, manufacturing, and trading systems.
As cross-border commerce relies on interconnected IT systems, cloud platforms, AI-driven operations, and third-party partners, vulnerabilities are expanding, making cybersecurity essential not only for IT teams but for strategic supply chain and trade risk management.
Key aspects shaping this trend:
- Expanded attack surface: Complex global supply chains now include multiple vendors, logistics systems, and digital interfaces. Cyber threats exploit weak links in this ecosystem, with third-party and multi-tier vendor vulnerabilities increasingly leveraged by attackers.
- Regulatory drivers: Standards and regulations like the EU’s NIS2 and broader risk disclosure requirements are pushing businesses involved in international trade to embed cybersecurity compliance and governance into their supply chain protocols.
- Operational risk and resilience: High-impact cyber incidents—such as ransomware attacks disrupting freight operations—underscore the operational risks to global trade flows and reinforce the need for robust cybersecurity measures across partners and transport networks.
- Integrated visibility and trust: In 2026, firms are moving toward end-to-end security visibility, continuous monitoring, and zero-trust frameworks that secure data and operations from origin to delivery across international borders.
In 2026 cybersecurity will no longer be a niche technical concern but a strategic imperative for global trade supply chains. Protecting digital infrastructure and partner networks is critical to ensuring uninterrupted trade operations, regulatory compliance, and confidence among trading partners.
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