The WTO’s revised forecasts project modest growth in global trade, driven by easing inflation and interest rates, but caution remains due to geopolitical tensions and unresolved regional conflicts. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and South America, are set to lead growth, while advanced economies navigate persistent inflation and evolving supply chain dynamics.

From the potential impact of U.S. trade policies under the incoming Trump presidency, to the continued growth of e-commerce and technological innovations in trade finance, the year promises to reshape global commerce.

Risks such as economic downturn, supply chain disruption, and geopolitical instability create an atmosphere that highlights the need for agility, adaptability, and diversification in 2025.

Read on for our 10 2025 trends.

Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2024 had in store.

• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2024
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2023 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2022 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2021 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2020
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2019
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2017

1. Global trade growth expected amidst transition and uncertainty

In October 2024, the WTO released their revised global trade outlook for the remainder of 2024, and looking ahead at 2025. In it they increased the growth forecast for world merchandise trade in 2025 by 0.3% from the previous estimate, bringing it to 3.3%.

The WTO clearly pointed out that the risks to this forecast were for growth to be slower, rather than higher. Meaning that uncertainty in geopolitical tensions, policy (this was before the results to the U.S. federal election were known), and regional conflicts could end up reducing growth, despite the predicted increase.

However, the WTO does see gradual trade recovery continuing in 2025 among declining inflation and therefore lowering interest rates, which generally stimulate consumer spending and investment.

Overall, it looks like 2025 will be another active and transitional year for trade.

2. Stubborn inflation and uncertainty in 2025 global economic outlook

Global inflation is slowly coming down from the global peak of 9.4% in 2022 during the pandemic. The global inflation rate is expected to come in around 4% during 2025 according to the IMF.

Most of the advanced economies will come in under 2% in 2025, with developing economies averaging just under 6%.

The major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank are all expected to continue to ease their interest rates over the course of 2025.

While the supply chain disruptions that brought inflation up to its 2022 high have mostly been resolved, new risks remain in play, as we’ll discuss in more detail later in this article. The above-mentioned geopolitical and trade tensions could have an upwards impact on inflation as well.

Modest growth is the overall prediction when it comes to the global economy in the year ahead, particularly in emerging markets. The caveat being that challenges remain, and there is still a significant amount of transition and uncertainty in the global environment that throws risk at any solid economic prediction.

3. Enhanced customer service in e-commerce delivery

The pandemic accelerated a shift in consumer behaviour, driving widespread adoption of e-commerce, particularly for “big and bulky” items like furniture and appliances. Today, online shopping continues to dominate with consumers expecting streamlined delivery experiences, including real-time tracking, timely scheduling, and exceptional service.

For retailers, delivery is no longer just about price but providing seamless customer experiences. This trend has intensified competition, especially as giants like Walmart and Amazon are projected to dominate 60% of online retail by 2027, prompting smaller retailers to prioritize affordability, speed, and personalized service.

Technological integration is key, and many retailers are bringing in platforms and tools that can enable real-time visibility, automated operations, and flexible scaling for peak periods. Companies are also enhancing services, such as pre-assembly and installation, to meet evolving consumer expectations. However, challenges remain, including rising operational costs, workforce shortages, and the need for advanced supply chain solutions.

Despite hurdles, the last-mile delivery market is poised for growth, driven by increasing online sales of bulky goods. Companies focusing on consumer trust, technological innovation, and efficient operations are likely to thrive in this competitive landscape.

4. Threats of supply chain disruptions continue in 2025

Many of the supply chain disruptions that plagued shippers throughout 2024 continue to threaten operations into 2025, including Red Sea diversions, the risk of labour disruptions, and tariff threats. This means fluctuating demand and high rates are likely for the year ahead.

To mitigate the risk of delays and disruption companies are turning to “frontloading”, filling their warehouses early to ensure they have access to the inventory they need to serve their customers, ahead of any incoming tariffs.

Canada just weathered a difficult holiday season with the Canada Post strike impacting deliveries during peak season. This labour disruption is estimated to have cost more than $1billion dollars in damages to small Canadian businesses, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

In the U.S., the USMX – the union representing container shipping lines and port operators along the East and Gulf Coast ports – are currently on a short-term contract extension that is set to expire on January 15, 2025. If they fail to reach an agreement with the International Longshorement’s Association (ILA), any resulting labour action could disrupt almost 50% of U.S. ocean freight volumes.

Between political, environmental, and labour disruptions, things remain uncertain in the international supply chain industry in 2025.

5. Trade Wars & Tariffs & Trump

Donald Trump’s second presidential term may bring significant changes to global trade policy, including increased tariffs and retaliatory measures. These actions are expected to heighten global economic uncertainty, disrupt supply chains, and strain international trade relationships. Analysts predict tariffs could be used as leverage in negotiations on issues like immigration and foreign currency policies.

Europe, already grappling with internal political challenges, faces particular risk with U.S. tariffs. These measures could reduce European exports, hamper economic growth, and complicate efforts to stabilize the eurozone economy.

China, a primary target of U.S. trade policies, may retaliate by targeting American agricultural exports and diversifying its trade relationships. Countries like Mexico and Vietnam could benefit as companies seek alternative supply chain locations.

U.S. corporations dependent on global supply chains are preparing for potential disruptions, while economists warn of unintended consequences, including higher consumer costs and distorted production networks.

The possibility of widespread retaliatory measures raises fears of a global trade war, with Europe, China, and North America among the most affected regions. But going into the start of 2025, it remains uncertain whether Trump will follow through on these threatened tariffs and to what degree.

6. Digital transformation in trade finance technology

Despite an incredible amount of work being done, the digital transformation of trade finance is a slow process. The complexity involved in creating and standardizing policy, regulations, systems, and languages presents enormous challenges. But progress continues to be made.

According to Euromoney, major financial institutions including DBS, ING, Lloyd’s and Santander are seeing 30-70% of trade transactions initiated digitally.

Among TradeReady’s most-read articles of 2024 were 2 articles focused on TradeTech and electronic trade documentation. So we know this is a topic to keep up with in 2025.

We’ll be checking in with CITP Craig Atkinson, an active member of the WEF’s TradeTech community, throughout the year for further developments in digital tools that will help businesses trade more easily, effectively, and efficiently.

7. Growing focus on skills-based hiring and retention in global trade roles

“Skills-based hiring”, or hiring based on evidence of a candidate’s specific skills rather than years of experience or formal education, has been a growing trend since the term was first coined back in 2012.

The upsides include a decrease in turnover, reduction in training time and cost, increased productivity, and universality (a more standardized process of finding a vetting candidates makes hiring easier and increases inclusivity).

For international trade roles especially, the complexity and specificity of skills needed to successfully complete trade transactions and processes makes this hiring strategy particularly useful.

And this trend is growing worldwide:

• This study found that 79% of companies now look for skills when hiring, vs. 21% that prioritize experience and education.
• Between 2017 and 2019, 46% of middle-skill and 31% of high-skill jobs moved away from requiring job applicants to have a formal college education.
• In India, where 50% of recruiters use skills as a key factor when searching for candidates, skills-based hiring is also on the rise.
• In 2022 the US government released new guidelines on applying a skills-based approach to hiring for federal positions.

In 2025, “right-skilling” will be a top trend in talent acquisition as companies continue to focus more on finding the right people for the job, rather than the right degree, or years of experience.

Secure, verifiable digital credentials will continue to play a key role in the finding and hiring of individuals with the right skills to do the job in the year ahead.

8. Regional trade growth

In 2025, global trade growth is projected to be led by emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, South America and the CIS region. As a result of expected incoming tariffs for goods entering the U.S. market from major trading partners like China, many companies are looking for new manufacturing locations. This could continue to benefit other manufacturing regions like Vietnam.

Overall, according to the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade is expected to increase in 2025, with the following regional trade forecasts:

• Asia: The fastest growing region for exports and imports, with a 4.7% increase in exports and a 5.1% increase in imports
• Middle East: The fastest growing region for imports, with a 9.0% increase
• South America: A 4.6% increase in exports and a 5.6% increase in imports, but a small decline in exports (-0.1%)
• CIS region: A 4.5% increase in exports and a 1.1% increase in imports
• Africa: A 2.5% increase in exports and a 1.0% increase in imports
• North America: A 2.1% increase in exports and a 3.3% increase in imports
• Europe: A -1.4% increase in exports and a -2.3% increase in imports

Friendshoring, nearshoring, and supply chain diversification will likely continue to transform global value chains in the year ahead.

9. WEF’s top 10 global risks

The World Economic Forum puts together an annual list of the most urgent global risks that organizations face in its Global Risks Report. As we await the release of the 2025 report in January, we can expect a continuation of many of the risks expected to be forefront in the time period of 2024-2026 listed in last year’s report.

These risks included, in descending order:

1. Misinformation and disinformation
2. Extreme weather events
3. Societal polarization
4. Cyber insecurity
5. Interstate armed conflict
6. Lack of economic opportunity
7. Inflation
8. Involuntary migration
9. Economic downturn
10. Pollution

As you peruse the list, you’ll see that several of them are already included in the top international trade trends we’ll be watching in the year ahead. We’ll be ready for updates in January.

10. AI use-cases for trade activities

Artificial intelligence is ubiquitous, groundbreaking, a timesaving gamechanger, a cybersecurity and intellectual property nightmare, it’s good, it’s bad, it’s ugly. It’s everywhere. And it’s certainly not going away in 2025, despite some backlash.

Within the international trade environment we’ll be following along with AI developments and use cases in the following areas:

• AI in hiring processes
• AI in supply chain visibility
• AI in supply chain management & sustainability
• AI in customs & documentation
• AI in inventory management
• AI in demand forecasting
• AI in trade finance

The post 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2025 appeared first on Trade Ready.

Recruiting and hiring are very different today than they’ve been in the past, and a substantial catalyst driving this change is AI. If you want to thrive in this new labour environment, learning all you can about AI in hiring is a necessity. Whether you’re an international trade professional, consultant, export advisor, or business owner, this article will deliver the information you need to conquer the AI hiring process.

The role of AI in recruiting and hiring

Within the last few years, HR professionals have started using AI in many facets of the hiring process. They are using the technology in very direct ways – AI can determine who is likely to be the best candidate for a job, who to fire, and more. Below, we’ll address several ways that recruitment personnel use AI in recruitment and hiring:

• Screening –AI technology can screen candidates based on a set of defined criteria and determine which candidates are most qualified. Staff can then use this information to weed out unfit candidates and focus on those who are most promising.
• Assigning turnover risk – AI’s predictive analytics function is currently being used to assess turnover risk, pinpointing which workers are most likely to leave. With the information gleaned from AI, they can take action in an effort to retain talent.
• Track employee performance – AI programs can monitor and report on employee performance over time. Companies can use this data to remedy any performance issues, promote the best workers, and get rid of those who might be slacking off.
• Sourcing candidates –AI-assisted messages, smart candidate searches, and more help recruiters make meaningful interactions with more candidates in less time.

*This is not an exhaustive list of ways AI is used in recruitment and hiring.

Internal and external skills-based hiring: A growing trend

You may remember a time when getting a degree or achieving a certain amount of experience made you a star candidate and guaranteed you a good job. This isn’t the case anymore.

Per a 2023 Test Gorilla report, 73% of employers are currently using skills-based hiring in some form.

Skills are now at the focal point when it comes to hiring talent.

External skills-based hiring

From an external standpoint, skills-based hiring focuses on the skills a candidate possesses rather than their educational accomplishments or years of experience.

According to Dustin Burgess of the Magnit workforce management platform, “Instead of the traditional approach where…an advanced degree or specific job experience is required, we ask: does the applicant have the required skills to do the role?”

This sums up external skills-based hiring in a nutshell.

Internal skills-based hiring

On the internal side, employers are searching for opportunities to promote from within. The idea is that internal candidates are more likely to thrive in new positions because they already possess company-specific skills.

This trend of internal and external skills-based hiring isn’t going anywhere soon. AI’s screening capabilities make skills-based hiring much easier, as it’s able to weed out candidates – both internal and external – who don’t have the skills necessary to perform a given job. They also highlight promising candidates. HR staff can narrow things down further through manual screening and interviews.

How to be successful in this AI recruiting and hiring landscape

Considering the ever-widening adoption of AI in recruiting and hiring, it’s essential for both candidates and hiring managers to pivot. Hiring managers who ignore AI’s merits may fall behind competitors who are taking advantage of the technology’s capabilities. On the other side are candidates who have difficulty competing with candidates who are deemed more attractive to AI. Below, we’ll explore how to be successful in this AI hiring and recruiting landscape.

How candidates can increase their chances of getting hired

Any candidate’s goal during the AI hiring process is to secure the job they want. If you want to increase your chances of getting hired, do the following:

• Get educated on AI influences and their effects on the hiring process.
• Closely research job opportunities to gauge which skills companies are looking for.
• Gather skills that are in demand in any given industry.
• Highlight marketable skills on your resume, proposals, online applications, introductory video, etc. Incorporate some of the same keywords used in job descriptions. These skills are most important to the employer.
• Be present on networking sites, social media sites like LinkedIn, and other virtual places employers go to search for candidates.

Highlight marketable skills on your resume, proposals, online applications, introductory video, etc. Incorporate some of the same keywords used in job descriptions. These skills are most important to the employer.

In addition to the above tips, don’t forget the importance of traditional networking, developing soft skills, and following all application instructions to the letter. Doing so will help you stand out in ways that AI doesn’t immediately detect, giving you an edge over other candidates.

How hiring managers can ensure success

Choosing the right candidates is one of the main goals of AI use in the HR sphere. If you want to leverage AI effectively and ensure success as a hiring manager, here are some tips to keep in mind:

• Set S.M.A.R.T. goals and use AI to support them (as appropriate). Experts Kimberlee Leonard and Rob Watts explain that M.A.R.T. goals are specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound.
• Don’t allow AI to take over functions that should be human-led.
• Ensure that your team is trained on how to use AI tools and glean information from its outputs.
• Safeguard candidates’ information using industry-trusted solutions.
• Realize that AI solutions are often biased and monitor their results to ensure fairness.

AI is here to stay

Recruitment experts everywhere predict that AI is here to stay. As general technology continues to advance, AI will become even more useful in the sphere of HR, sparking more innovation in the recruitment and hiring processes. Though this may be alarming to some, candidates and companies who stay at the forefront of AI developments and leverage AI’s strengths are sure to be at an advantage.

The post AI in Hiring: Trend Analysis and Essential Skills for Today’s Labour Environment appeared first on Trade Ready.